Embecta (EMBC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EMBC - Embecta Corp. Common Stock
$4.94
0.05 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
-13.18%
30d:
+4.0%
90d:
+60.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: EMBC is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: EMBC is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.10
Based on 0.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EMBC is currently trading at $4.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.34 to $5.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.8) is in line with its historical norms (2.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EMBC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $4.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EMBC scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $4.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EMBC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $4.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EMBC scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $4.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.34 -
$5.54
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.2% above Wall St target ($4.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.34 -
$5.54
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.87
Resistance Level
$5.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.77
Wall Street Target
$4.00
(-18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.7%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.8 vs 2.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$4.70
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$4.60
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→3)
$4.81
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.0%)
$31.50
(+544%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.8, Growth: -4.0%)
$4.33
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.4, Growth: -4.0%)
$3.68
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.47
Bull Case
$6.75
(+38%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 3.8
Base Case
$6.14
(+26%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 3.5
Bear Case
$3.48
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.8 to 2.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.11
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is EMBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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