EMCOR Group (EME) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EME - EMCOR Group, Inc.
$780.66
32.33 (4.32%)
▲
5d:
+5.31%
30d:
-6.33%
90d:
-3.8%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EME appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 35% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EME appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 35% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1312.26
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$814.81
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EME is currently trading at $780.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $746.78 to $821.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (24.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EME is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $785.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: EME scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1033.29 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EME is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $785.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: EME scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1033.29 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$746.78 -
$821.45
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($1033.29)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 77/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$746.78 -
$821.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$38.94
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$722.08
Resistance Level
$785.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.24
Wall Street Target
$1033.29
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.8%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 24.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$745.53
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$711.98
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$679.94
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$780.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.2, Growth: 11.9%)
$1092.87
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.9%)
$1037.67
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 11.9%)
$882.02
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.13
Bull Case
$941.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 14.4%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$855.91
(+10%)
Market implied 14.4%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$508.86
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 24.4
Stabilization Target:
$896.68
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 6:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced EME Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EME price and gamma walls.
