What is the fair value of ENPH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ENPH to be between $37.54 and $41.99. The current price is $38.61.

What is the analyst price target for ENPH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ENPH is $46.79. This implies a potential upside of 21.2% from current levels.

ENPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ENPH - Enphase Energy, Inc.

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$38.61

0.25 (0.65%) ▲

5d: -4.62%

30d: -0.72%

90d: -38.07%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 28, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $41.87 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ENPH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 14.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$61.00

Based on 9.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$37.87

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ENPH is currently trading at $38.61, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.54 to $41.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ENPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.34, while resistance sits at $43.28.

Market Sentiment: ENPH scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.79 (+21.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $37.54 - $41.99

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($46.79)
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $37.54 - $41.99

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $37.34

Resistance Level $43.28

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.72

Wall Street Target $46.79 (+21.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -19.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -3.5%

Profit Margin 10.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.8% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.7 vs 17.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $38.30 (-1%)

2-Year Target $37.99 (-2%)

3-Year Target $37.69 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→17) $38.54 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.3%) $69.19 (+79%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 14.3%) $57.65 (+49%)

Bear: (PE: 14.2, Growth: 14.3%) $49.00 (+27%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 38.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99

Bull Case $84.39 (+119%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.6

Base Case $76.72 (+99%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.8

Bear Case $26.08 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 17.1

Stabilization Target: $39.48 (+2.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.3%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Thurman J Rodgers SELL 137250 shares 2026-03-13

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ENPH price and gamma walls.

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