FSLR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSLR - First Solar, Inc.
$211.03
5.02 (2.44%)
▲
5d:
+4.05%
30d:
-9.07%
90d:
+4.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FSLR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FSLR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$448.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$278.53
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSLR is currently trading at $211.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $206.25 to $239.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 65.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $217.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.36 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $217.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.36 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$206.25 -
$239.14
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($256.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$206.25 -
$239.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$195.84
Resistance Level
$217.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.16
Wall Street Target
$256.36
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.1%
Profit Margin
30.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$205.12
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$199.38
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$193.80
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$211.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 32.9%)
$1122.07
(+432%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 32.9%)
$495.87
(+135%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 32.9%)
$421.49
(+100%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.01
Bull Case
$326.05
(+55%)
Analyst growth 43.9%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$296.41
(+41%)
Market implied 43.9%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$140.09
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$230.35
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSLR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kuntal Kumar Verma
SELL
573 shares
2026-04-15
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Alexander R Bradley
SELL
14106 shares
2026-03-17
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