FSLR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSLR - First Solar, Inc.
$254.09
-9.02 (-3.43%)
▼
5d:
-7.1%
30d:
+2.09%
90d:
+33.79%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSLR is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FSLR is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$452.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$280.91
9.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSLR is currently trading at $254.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $241.77 to $295.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $248.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $248.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$241.77 -
$295.45
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FSLR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($247.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$241.77 -
$295.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$248.57
Resistance Level
$289.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.33
Wall Street Target
$247.30
(-6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.1%
Profit Margin
30.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$273.90
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$285.13
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$296.82
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$262.08
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.6%)
$1206.71
(+359%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 33.6%)
$627.48
(+139%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 33.6%)
$533.36
(+103%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.49
Bull Case
$425.14
(+62%)
Analyst growth 50.0%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$386.49
(+47%)
Market implied 50.0%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$175.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSLR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kuntal Kumar Verma
SELL
573 shares
2026-04-15
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Alexander R Bradley
SELL
14106 shares
2026-03-17
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