First Solar (FSLR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSLR - First Solar, Inc.
$209.03
1.86 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
+0.78%
30d:
-7.82%
90d:
-22.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $204.38 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FSLR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FSLR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$445.73
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$276.76
24.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSLR is currently trading at $209.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.74 to $233.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $197.10, while resistance sits at $220.98.
Market Sentiment: FSLR scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $274.81 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $197.10, while resistance sits at $220.98.
Market Sentiment: FSLR scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $274.81 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$203.74 -
$233.25
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($274.81)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 77/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.74 -
$233.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$197.10
Resistance Level
$220.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.04
Wall Street Target
$274.81
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$202.76
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$196.68
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$190.78
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$208.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 32.2%)
$1077.29
(+415%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 32.2%)
$482.89
(+131%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 32.2%)
$410.45
(+96%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.55
Bull Case
$318.36
(+52%)
Analyst growth 39.7%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$289.41
(+39%)
Market implied 39.7%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$140.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$228.89
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSLR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kuntal Kumar Verma
SELL
573 shares
2026-04-15
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Alexander R Bradley
SELL
14106 shares
2026-03-17
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