Is FSLR stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, FSLR is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: FSLR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of FSLR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for FSLR to be between $171.72 and $193.37. The current price is $171.25.

What is the analyst price target for FSLR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for FSLR is $273.67. This implies a potential upside of 59.8% from current levels.

First Solar (FSLR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FSLR - First Solar, Inc.

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$171.25

-3.57 (-2.04%) ▼

5d: -4.23%

30d: -10.79%

90d: -15.57%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 5d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $175.46 · last confirmed Oct 21, 2026

Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSLR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$438.53

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$272.29

37.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FSLR is currently trading at $171.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.72 to $193.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: FSLR scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $273.67 (+59.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $171.72 - $193.37

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 59.8% below Wall St target ($273.67)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $171.72 - $193.37

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $168.63

Resistance Level $187.85

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.30

Wall Street Target $273.67 (+59.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -3.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 23.3%

Profit Margin 32.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -8.8% cheaper

PE vs Historical 7.3 vs 9.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -8.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $156.18 (-9%)

2-Year Target $142.44 (-17%)

3-Year Target $129.90 (-24%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→10) $170.82 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 34.3%) $1128.18 (+559%)

Base: (SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 34.3%) $414.71 (+142%)

Bear: (PE: 6.2, Growth: 34.3%) $352.50 (+106%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 10.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.22

Bull Case $278.11 (+62%)

Analyst growth 44.6%, PE expands to 11.9

Base Case $252.83 (+48%)

Market implied 44.6%, PE stable at 10.8

Bear Case $118.88 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 9.6

Stabilization Target: $225.19 (+31.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +31.5%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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