ERII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$8.73
-0.20 (-2.24%)
▼
5d:
-1.24%
30d:
+7.51%
90d:
-21.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
24d
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1 traders called ERII this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: ERII shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 13th percentile) and market pricing in only 3.6% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: ERII shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 13th percentile) and market pricing in only 3.6% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.51
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $8.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.23 to $9.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.23 -
$9.00
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($11.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.23 -
$9.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.02
(11.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.83
Resistance Level
$8.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.32
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.04
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$9.37
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$9.71
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.74
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 791.7%)
$39.33
(+351%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 791.7%)
$29.46
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 791.7%)
$25.04
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$13.83
(+58%)
Analyst growth 40.8%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$12.57
(+44%)
Market implied 40.8%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$6.07
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 11, 2026 4:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
2419 shares
2026-04-06
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
165292 shares
2026-04-02
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
11582 shares
2026-03-06
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