ERII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$8.91
0.26 (3.01%)
▲
5d:
+4.58%
30d:
+0.79%
90d:
-19.29%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ERII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ERII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.57
6.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $8.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.48 to $8.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (14.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.48 -
$8.88
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($11.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.48 -
$8.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.86
Resistance Level
$8.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.65
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.27
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$9.64
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$10.02
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 791.7%)
$37.43
(+320%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 791.7%)
$30.07
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 791.7%)
$25.56
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$13.41
(+55%)
Analyst growth 44.6%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$12.19
(+41%)
Market implied 44.6%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$5.73
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
2419 shares
2026-04-06
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
165292 shares
2026-04-02
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
11582 shares
2026-03-06
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