ERII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$7.82
0.04 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
-10.42%
30d:
-9.28%
90d:
-5.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ERII is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ERII is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.74
10.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $7.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.19 to $8.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.51, while resistance sits at $9.34.
Market Sentiment: ERII scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.33 (+19.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.51, while resistance sits at $9.34.
Market Sentiment: ERII scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.33 (+19.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.19 -
$8.88
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ERII? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($9.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.19 -
$8.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.51
Resistance Level
$9.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.12
Wall Street Target
$9.33
(+19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-57.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 14.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.04
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$8.26
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$8.50
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.85
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 1112.5%)
$33.11
(+324%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 1112.5%)
$26.39
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 1112.5%)
$22.43
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$15.96
(+104%)
Analyst growth 86.5%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$14.51
(+86%)
Market implied 86.5%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$5.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 10:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
2419 shares
2026-04-06
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
165292 shares
2026-04-02
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
11582 shares
2026-03-06
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