Energy Recovery (ERII) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$6.68
0.01 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
+0.45%
30d:
-2.2%
90d:
-21.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ERII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ERII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.32
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $6.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.67 to $6.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (15.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ERII scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+19.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ERII scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+19.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$6.67 -
$6.99
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.5% growth which is achievable
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.67 -
$6.99
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.56
(8.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.55
Resistance Level
$6.93
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.94
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+19.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-57.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.5% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 15.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.25
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$7.86
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$8.53
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$9.45
(+42%)
Analyst growth 28.8%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$8.59
(+29%)
Market implied 28.8%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$4.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced ERII Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ERII price and gamma walls.
