Energy Recovery (ERII) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$6.77
0.07 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
-0.59%
30d:
-10.69%
90d:
-24.78%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ERII trades at premium valuation expecting 9.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ERII trades at premium valuation expecting 9.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.18
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $6.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.84 to $7.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ERII scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ERII scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.84 -
$7.67
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ERII? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.7% growth which is achievable
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 26% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.84 -
$7.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.57
(8.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.60
Resistance Level
$7.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.21
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-57.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.7% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 15.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.43
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$8.15
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$8.94
(+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$9.50
(+40%)
Analyst growth 28.8%, PE expands to 28.4
Base Case
$8.63
(+28%)
Market implied 28.8%, PE stable at 25.8
Bear Case
$4.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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