ERII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$8.66
-0.07 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
-3.78%
30d:
+9.34%
90d:
-22.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ERII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ERII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.51
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $8.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.29 to $9.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+27.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+27.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.29 -
$9.02
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
62th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 62th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.0% below Wall St target ($11.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.29 -
$9.02
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.18
(13.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.83
Resistance Level
$8.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.19
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+27.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.95
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$9.24
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$9.55
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 791.7%)
$39.33
(+354%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 791.7%)
$29.23
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 791.7%)
$24.84
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$13.83
(+58%)
Analyst growth 40.8%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$12.57
(+44%)
Market implied 40.8%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$6.07
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
2419 shares
2026-04-06
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
165292 shares
2026-04-02
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
11582 shares
2026-03-06
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