ERII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$8.81
-0.09 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
+2.2%
90d:
-12.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ERII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ERII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.38
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $8.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.10 to $8.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (14.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ERII has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ERII has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.10 -
$8.87
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($11.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.10 -
$8.87
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.83
Resistance Level
$8.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.64
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.33
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$9.77
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$10.24
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.93
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 791.7%)
$39.33
(+342%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 791.7%)
$30.04
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 791.7%)
$25.53
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$14.98
(+68%)
Analyst growth 44.6%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$13.62
(+53%)
Market implied 44.6%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$6.41
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
2419 shares
2026-04-06
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
165292 shares
2026-04-02
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
11582 shares
2026-03-06
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