EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$160.16
-1.18 (-0.73%)
▼
5d:
-2.35%
30d:
+1.06%
90d:
+12.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.24
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $160.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $157.16 to $163.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.1) is in line with its historical norms (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $156.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $156.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$157.16 -
$163.90
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($146.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$157.16 -
$163.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.29
Resistance Level
$167.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.11
Wall Street Target
$146.38
(-8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.1 vs 23.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$158.56
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$156.97
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$155.40
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$160.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: 1.8%)
$168.93
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.8%)
$159.19
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 1.8%)
$135.31
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.20
Bull Case
$198.36
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$180.33
(+13%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$109.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.1 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$164.93
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 7:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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