EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$170.59
2.70 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
-0.44%
30d:
+1.8%
90d:
+15.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$204.16
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$126.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $170.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $164.84 to $177.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.9) is in line with its historical norms (23.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $164.35, while resistance sits at $181.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $164.35, while resistance sits at $181.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$164.84 -
$177.35
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($157.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$164.84 -
$177.35
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$164.35
Resistance Level
$181.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.95
Wall Street Target
$157.14
(-7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.0 vs 23.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$170.76
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$170.93
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$171.10
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$170.76
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.9, Growth: 3.4%)
$188.40
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 3.4%)
$163.08
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 3.4%)
$138.62
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.20
Bull Case
$212.18
(+24%)
Analyst growth 14.9%, PE expands to 29.8
Base Case
$192.89
(+13%)
Market implied 14.9%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$114.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 4:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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