EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$161.34
-1.81 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-1.16%
30d:
+2.64%
90d:
+14.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.06
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $161.34, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $157.16 to $163.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.3) is in line with its historical norms (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $156.28, while resistance sits at $167.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $156.28, while resistance sits at $167.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$157.16 -
$163.90
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($146.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$157.16 -
$163.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.29
Resistance Level
$167.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.30
Wall Street Target
$146.38
(-9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 23.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.05
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$158.77
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$157.50
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$160.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 2.0%)
$171.11
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.0%)
$159.97
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 2.0%)
$135.98
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.18
Bull Case
$201.11
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.1%, PE expands to 29.0
Base Case
$182.83
(+13%)
Market implied 12.1%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$110.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$164.83
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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