EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$178.22
2.72 (1.55%)
▲
5d:
+7.53%
30d:
+7.08%
90d:
+23.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXPD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: EXPD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$199.00
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$123.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $178.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.72 to $169.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.2) is in line with its historical norms (23.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $167.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXPD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $152.79. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $167.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXPD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $152.79. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$160.72 -
$169.72
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.3% above Wall St target ($152.79)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.72 -
$169.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.29
Resistance Level
$167.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.25
Wall Street Target
$152.79
(-14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
25.3 vs 23.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$181.61
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$185.06
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$188.57
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$177.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.3, Growth: 2.9%)
$194.19
(+9%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.9%)
$167.48
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 2.9%)
$142.36
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19
Bull Case
$215.73
(+21%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 30.6
Base Case
$196.12
(+10%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 27.8
Bear Case
$116.97
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 8:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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