EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$192.47
4.73 (2.52%)
▲
5d:
+2.67%
30d:
+3.39%
90d:
+16.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXPD is fairly valued with market pricing in -0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: EXPD is fairly valued with market pricing in -0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$231.86
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$143.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $192.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.57 to $191.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.8) is in line with its historical norms (23.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$186.57 -
$191.45
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($178.87)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.57 -
$191.45
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$183.36
Resistance Level
$193.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.81
Wall Street Target
$178.87
(-7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.5%
Profit Margin
7.6%
PE vs Historical
23.8 vs 23.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$192.47
(0%)
2-Year Target
$192.47
(0%)
3-Year Target
$192.47
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$192.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.8, Growth: 3.6%)
$213.72
(+11%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$183.13
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 3.6%)
$155.66
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.98
Bull Case
$239.19
(+24%)
Analyst growth 15.8%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$217.45
(+13%)
Market implied 15.8%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$127.66
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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