What is the fair value of FDX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for FDX to be between $286.72 and $301.48. The current price is $303.92.

What is the analyst price target for FDX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for FDX is $356.27. This implies a potential upside of 17.2% from current levels.

FedEx (FDX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FDX - FedEx Corporation

AIR COURIER SERVICES

$303.92

5.69 (1.91%) ▲

5d: +2.84%

30d: +4.26%

90d: -3.51%

BUY

MODERATE Confidence

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 28, 2026 4d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $290.01 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

FDX is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; FDX has been on it 2 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-22.

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -1.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$329.26

Based on 1.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$204.44

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $303.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $286.72 to $301.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $304.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: FDX scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $356.27 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $286.72 - $301.48

Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 67.3%

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($356.27)
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $286.72 - $301.48

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$18.12 (6.0%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $286.38

Resistance Level $304.84

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.58

Wall Street Target $356.27 (+17.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -4.3%

Profit Margin 4.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 15.6 vs 16.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $301.18 (-1%)

2-Year Target $298.47 (-2%)

3-Year Target $295.79 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→16) $303.70 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -1.8%) $366.95 (+21%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: -1.8%) $287.93 (-5%)

Bear: (PE: 13.2, Growth: -1.8%) $244.74 (-20%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 16.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.55

Bull Case $344.91 (+14%)

Analyst growth 5.1%, PE expands to 17.7

Base Case $313.55 (+3%)

Market implied 5.1%, PE stable at 16.1

Bear Case $202.80 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 16.0

Stabilization Target: $312.05 (+2.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.7%

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Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM

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