FedEx (FDX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDX - FedEx Corporation
$290.36
3.29 (1.15%)
▲
5d:
+1.58%
30d:
-8.27%
90d:
-6.31%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 12, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$331.31
Based on 1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$205.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $290.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $291.52 to $325.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $279.23, while resistance sits at $303.18.
Market Sentiment: FDX scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $356.30 (+22.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $279.23, while resistance sits at $303.18.
Market Sentiment: FDX scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $356.30 (+22.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$291.52 -
$325.66
Company Quality Score
74/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FDX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (82/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($356.30)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 25% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$291.52 -
$325.66
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$279.23
Resistance Level
$303.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.89
Wall Street Target
$356.30
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$283.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$276.02
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$269.12
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$291.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -1.8%)
$376.93
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: -1.8%)
$275.08
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: -1.8%)
$233.82
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.69
Bull Case
$329.52
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$299.56
(+3%)
Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$195.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$314.00
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy B Brightman
SELL
16959 shares
2026-04-15
Susan C Schwab
SELL
5795 shares
2026-04-15
Gina F Adams
SELL
20450 shares
2026-04-14
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