FDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDX - FedEx Corporation
$317.24
-11.54 (-3.51%)
▼
5d:
-6.35%
30d:
-18.43%
90d:
-10.83%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FDX is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FDX is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$331.31
Based on 1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$205.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $317.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $322.16 to $386.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $321.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $321.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$322.16 -
$386.30
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FDX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($339.71)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$322.16 -
$386.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$321.81
Resistance Level
$413.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.27
Wall Street Target
$339.71
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$318.51
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$319.78
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$321.06
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$317.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.8%)
$402.43
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: -1.8%)
$300.55
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: -1.8%)
$255.46
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.72
Bull Case
$373.83
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.2%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$339.85
(+3%)
Market implied 4.2%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$221.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy B Brightman
SELL
16959 shares
2026-04-15
Susan C Schwab
SELL
5795 shares
2026-04-15
Gina F Adams
SELL
20450 shares
2026-04-14
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