United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$100.28
0.31 (0.31%)
▲
5d:
-3.11%
30d:
-3.49%
90d:
-7.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 2, 2026 at $103.01 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026
Strength: 8.4/10
Get Alerted When UPS Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$158.71
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $100.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.41 to $105.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.08 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.08 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$101.41 -
$105.90
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($116.08)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$101.41 -
$105.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.81
Resistance Level
$106.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.42
Wall Street Target
$116.08
(+15.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.67
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$95.13
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$92.66
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$99.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$228.81
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 12.0%)
$140.88
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 12.0%)
$119.74
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.42
Bull Case
$163.83
(+63%)
Analyst growth 49.0%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$148.94
(+49%)
Market implied 49.0%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$67.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$108.20
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Integrated Freight & Logistics by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FDX
FedEx Corporation |
BUY
32 analysts |
$355 | 49 HOLD |
|
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$28 | 57 HOLD |
|
CHRW
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$199 | 59 HOLD |
|
JBHT
JB Hunt Transport Servic… |
BUY
26 analysts |
$305 | 55 HOLD |
|
GXO
GXO Logistics Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$69 | 43 HOLD |
Advanced UPS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPS price and gamma walls.
