UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
TRUCKING & COURIER SERVICES (NO AIR)
United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$110.38
-2.07 (-1.84%)
▼
5d:
-0.59%
30d:
+15.24%
90d:
+5.63%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
0d
Protect UPS Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$95.52 – $109.42
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.6x
FAIR
vs 13.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$115.46
+4.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$107.71 / $114.97
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.08
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $110.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.52 to $109.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $107.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $107.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$95.52 -
$109.42
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$95.52 -
$109.42
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$107.71
Resistance Level
$114.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($115.46)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 6.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.63
Wall Street Target
$115.46
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.37
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$112.38
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$113.39
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$110.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$220.92
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 11.2%)
$151.67
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 11.2%)
$128.92
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.19
Bull Case
$192.95
(+75%)
Analyst growth 56.0%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case
$175.41
(+59%)
Market implied 56.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$76.47
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UPS)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders on StockTwits express bullish sentiment towards $UPS, with one user suggesting a buy opportunity at $140 and a potential price increase to $150.
Key Retail Themes:
Buy opportunity
Price prediction
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 10:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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