UPS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$106.87
2.65 (2.54%)
▲
5d:
-5.38%
30d:
-3.42%
90d:
-0.65%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$161.06
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$100.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $106.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.18 to $114.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $102.83, while resistance sits at $117.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $102.83, while resistance sits at $117.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$107.18 -
$114.77
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($115.85)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$107.18 -
$114.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.83
Resistance Level
$117.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.24
Wall Street Target
$115.85
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 13.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$106.02
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$105.17
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$104.33
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$107.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.0%)
$235.10
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$150.12
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$127.61
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.38
Bull Case
$172.04
(+61%)
Analyst growth 50.1%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$156.40
(+46%)
Market implied 50.1%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$70.87
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 13.6
Stabilization Target:
$109.80
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 10:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-10
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