United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$101.06
-0.46 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
+3.67%
30d:
+9.79%
90d:
-10.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
2d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $97.48 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UPS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.68
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $101.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.28 to $99.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $101.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.69 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $101.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.69 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$93.28 -
$99.41
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.69)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.28 -
$99.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.85
Resistance Level
$101.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.54
Wall Street Target
$113.69
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.24
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$97.45
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$95.70
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$100.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.9%)
$224.08
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 11.9%)
$141.50
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 11.9%)
$120.27
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.38
Bull Case
$167.27
(+66%)
Analyst growth 49.8%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$152.06
(+51%)
Market implied 49.8%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$69.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$106.37
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UPS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPS price and gamma walls.
