United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$93.02
-0.87 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
-1.0%
30d:
-9.7%
90d:
-15.45%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$157.43
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.75
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $93.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.11 to $103.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.5) compared to its historical average (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $91.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.62 (+24.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $91.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.62 (+24.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$95.11 -
$103.78
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($115.62)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 24% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.11 -
$103.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.63
Resistance Level
$98.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.53
Wall Street Target
$115.62
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 13.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.65
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$84.48
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$80.51
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$92.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.0%)
$231.32
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$130.71
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$111.10
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.41
Bull Case
$154.05
(+66%)
Analyst growth 49.2%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$140.05
(+51%)
Market implied 49.2%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$63.85
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$107.33
(+15.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 6:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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