What is the fair value of ABNB stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ABNB to be between $158.22 and $172.08. The current price is $172.01.

What is the analyst price target for ABNB?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ABNB is $183.45. This implies a potential upside of 6.7% from current levels.

Airbnb (ABNB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ABNB - Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock

SERVICES-TO DWELLINGS & OTHER BUILDINGS

$172.01

-3.75 (-2.13%) ▼

5d: -0.97%

30d: +13.62%

90d: +17.13%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 9d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $174.20 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ABNB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 17.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$261.90

Based on 11.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$162.62

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ABNB is currently trading at $172.01, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $158.22 to $172.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.5) is in line with its historical norms (25.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ABNB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $162.55, while resistance sits at $179.13.

Market Sentiment: ABNB scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $158.22 - $172.08

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 39.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($183.45)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $158.22 - $172.08

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $162.55

Resistance Level $179.13

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 23, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 27.47

Wall Street Target $183.45 (+6.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 33.4%

Profit Margin 20.4%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.0% premium

PE vs Historical 27.5 vs 25.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $177.17 (+3%)

2-Year Target $182.49 (+6%)

3-Year Target $187.96 (+9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→25) PE COMPRESSION $172.42 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.5, Growth: 17.9%) $281.81 (+64%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.9%) $203.74 (+18%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.9%) $173.18 (+1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 40.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39

Bull Case $275.76 (+60%)

Analyst growth 42.6%, PE expands to 44.0

Base Case $250.69 (+46%)

Market implied 42.6%, PE stable at 40.0

Bear Case $119.52 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 25, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced ABNB Option Strategies

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