National Vision (EYE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EYE - National Vision Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$17.29
0.16 (0.93%)
▲
5d:
+2.49%
30d:
-11.38%
90d:
-5.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EYE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.9% annual earnings decline despite 36% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EYE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.9% annual earnings decline despite 36% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.63
Based on -0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EYE is currently trading at $17.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.88 to $21.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (21.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EYE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.44, while resistance sits at $18.32.
Market Sentiment: EYE scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.73 (+66.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EYE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.44, while resistance sits at $18.32.
Market Sentiment: EYE scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.73 (+66.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.88 -
$21.19
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.1% below Wall St target ($28.73)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.88 -
$21.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.44
Resistance Level
$18.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.93
Wall Street Target
$28.73
(+66.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 21.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.27
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$15.31
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$14.41
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$17.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.1%)
$17.15
(+-1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: -4.1%)
$15.25
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: -4.1%)
$12.96
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$30.02
(+74%)
Analyst growth 55.5%, PE expands to 31.1
Base Case
$27.29
(+58%)
Market implied 55.5%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$11.93
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 21.5
Stabilization Target:
$20.73
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EYE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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