National Vision (EYE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EYE - National Vision Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$16.40
0.02 (0.12%)
▲
5d:
-0.06%
30d:
-1.74%
90d:
-17.0%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EYE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EYE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.24
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EYE is currently trading at $16.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.26 to $17.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (21.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EYE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EYE scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.18 (+71.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EYE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EYE scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.18 (+71.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.26 -
$17.65
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EYE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 71.8% below Wall St target ($28.18)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.26 -
$17.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.91
Resistance Level
$17.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.01
Wall Street Target
$28.18
(+71.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 21.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.24
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$14.15
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$13.15
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$16.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -4.3%)
$17.21
(+5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: -4.3%)
$14.35
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: -4.3%)
$12.20
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$28.02
(+71%)
Analyst growth 55.5%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$25.47
(+55%)
Market implied 55.5%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$11.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 21.2
Stabilization Target:
$20.44
(+24.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EYE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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