Is F stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, F is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: F shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of F stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for F to be between $11.99 and $13.10. The current price is $11.90.

What is the analyst price target for F?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for F is $15.56. This implies a potential upside of 30.7% from current levels.

Ford Motor (F) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

F - Ford Motor Company

MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

$11.90

-0.25 (-2.06%) ▼

5d: -1.24%

30d: -9.16%

90d: -15.9%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your F Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 28, 2026 5d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 15, 2026 at $12.31 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026

Strength: 7.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: F shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 4.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$17.78

Based on 4.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$11.04

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: F is currently trading at $11.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.99 to $13.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 430.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, F is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.56 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $11.99 - $13.10

Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($15.56)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $11.99 - $13.10

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $11.81

Resistance Level $12.78

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 6.20

Wall Street Target $15.56 (+30.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -3.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 430.8%

Profit Margin -3.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 6.2 vs 7.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $11.13 (-7%)

2-Year Target $10.40 (-13%)

3-Year Target $9.73 (-18%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→8) $11.92 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.1%) $43.03 (+262%)

Base: (SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 4.1%) $13.44 (+13%)

Bear: (PE: 5.3, Growth: 4.1%) $11.42 (-4%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 7.6

Stabilization Target: $14.58 (+22.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +22.5%

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Last updated: October 21, 2026 9:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 PM

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