First American Financial (FAF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAF - First American Financial Corporation
$61.20
-1.61 (-2.56%)
▼
5d:
-2.06%
30d:
-14.02%
90d:
-12.65%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FAF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FAF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.69
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAF is currently trading at $61.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.85 to $72.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $59.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FAF scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.33 (+41.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $59.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FAF scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.33 (+41.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.85 -
$72.17
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.1% below Wall St target ($86.33)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.85 -
$72.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.74
Resistance Level
$65.51
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.42
Wall Street Target
$86.33
(+41.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.4%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.38
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$55.70
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$53.14
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$61.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.5%)
$155.21
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 2.5%)
$65.84
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 2.5%)
$55.96
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.22
Bull Case
$69.52
(+14%)
Analyst growth 0.6%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$63.20
(+3%)
Market implied 0.6%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$42.71
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$70.47
(+15.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 4:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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