First American Financial (FAF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAF - First American Financial Corporation
$63.11
1.60 (2.60%)
▲
5d:
-4.77%
30d:
-14.77%
90d:
-9.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FAF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FAF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.94
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAF is currently trading at $63.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.45 to $74.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $59.74, while resistance sits at $72.08.
Market Sentiment: FAF scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.67 (+42.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $59.74, while resistance sits at $72.08.
Market Sentiment: FAF scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.67 (+42.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$66.45 -
$74.47
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.5% below Wall St target ($87.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.45 -
$74.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.74
Resistance Level
$72.08
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.33
Wall Street Target
$87.67
(+42.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.4%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.37
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$55.40
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$52.57
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$61.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.4%)
$166.84
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 3.4%)
$68.09
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 3.4%)
$57.87
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.21
Bull Case
$68.47
(+11%)
Analyst growth 2.5%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$62.24
(+1%)
Market implied 2.5%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$41.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$71.67
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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