First American Financial (FAF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAF - First American Financial Corporation
$71.78
0.60 (0.84%)
▲
5d:
-6.18%
30d:
-0.72%
90d:
+10.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FAF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FAF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.83
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAF is currently trading at $71.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.87 to $74.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.67 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.67 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$71.87 -
$74.67
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($87.67)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (43/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.87 -
$74.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.46
Resistance Level
$76.90
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.72
Wall Street Target
$87.67
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.4%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.64
(0%)
2-Year Target
$71.49
(0%)
3-Year Target
$71.35
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$71.97
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.4%)
$164.96
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 3.4%)
$79.46
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 3.4%)
$67.54
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.18
Bull Case
$80.57
(+12%)
Analyst growth 2.9%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$73.25
(+2%)
Market implied 2.9%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$48.40
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$72.41
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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