FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$49.60
0.37 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
-0.36%
30d:
-2.36%
90d:
+6.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.63
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $49.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.48 to $51.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.6) is in line with its historical norms (34.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.65, while resistance sits at $52.15.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.65, while resistance sits at $52.15.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$48.48 -
$51.64
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.53)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.48 -
$51.64
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.65
Resistance Level
$52.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.58
Wall Street Target
$48.53
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
35.6 vs 34.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.34
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$51.10
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$51.87
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→34)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.57
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.6, Growth: 10.7%)
$67.28
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$38.26
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$32.52
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$62.92
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 45.1
Base Case
$57.20
(+15%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 41.0
Bear Case
$33.48
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 7:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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