FAST
Fastenal Co
RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY
Fastenal (FAST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$55.84
+0.29 (+0.52%)
▲
5d:
+5.38%
30d:
+10.84%
90d:
+9.0%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
0d
Protect FAST Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (22%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$50.72 – $53.62
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
39.5x
FAIR
vs 34.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$51.15
-7.9% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$51.86 / $56.27
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FAST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.99
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $55.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.72 to $53.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 39.5) compared to its historical average (34.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$50.72 -
$53.62
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$50.72 -
$53.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$51.86
Resistance Level
$56.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
FAST is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($51.15)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.47
Wall Street Target
$51.15
(-7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
39.5 vs 34.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.11
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$60.78
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$63.57
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→35)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.57
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.5, Growth: 10.6%)
$75.16
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$37.82
(-32%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$32.14
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$69.84
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.4%, PE expands to 49.6
Base Case
$63.49
(+14%)
Market implied 14.4%, PE stable at 45.1
Bear Case
$37.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FAST)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits expresses optimism about $FAST, predicting it will move quickly and possibly exit the downward trend (DLO). No recent news articles were found.
Key Retail Themes:
optimism for $FAST's future performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 9:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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