Is FAST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, FAST is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: FAST is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of FAST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for FAST to be between $49.58 and $51.50. The current price is $52.73.

What is the analyst price target for FAST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for FAST is $51.07. This implies a potential upside of -3.1% from current levels.

Fastenal (FAST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FAST - Fastenal Co

RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

$52.73

0.24 (0.46%) ▲

5d: +4.66%

30d: +3.41%

90d: +12.14%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your FAST Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 14, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 6, 2026 at $51.27 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 5.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FAST is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$49.74

Based on 7.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$30.88

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $52.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.58 to $51.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.6) is in line with its historical norms (34.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $49.58 - $51.50

Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 47.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.07)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $49.58 - $51.50

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $47.30

Resistance Level $52.87

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 37.57

Wall Street Target $51.07 (-3.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 15.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 20.7%

Profit Margin 15.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.1% premium

PE vs Historical 37.6 vs 34.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $54.36 (+3%)

2-Year Target $56.05 (+6%)

3-Year Target $57.79 (+10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 38→34) PE COMPRESSION $52.76 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 37.6, Growth: 10.5%) $71.10 (+35%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.5%) $37.59 (-29%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.5%) $31.95 (-39%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 42.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23

Bull Case $65.89 (+25%)

Analyst growth 14.1%, PE expands to 46.9

Base Case $59.90 (+14%)

Market implied 14.1%, PE stable at 42.7

Bear Case $35.69 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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