FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$47.18
0.82 (1.78%)
▲
5d:
-2.93%
30d:
+1.28%
90d:
-3.92%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 14, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.30
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $47.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.49 to $47.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.9) is in line with its historical norms (33.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$45.49 -
$47.53
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($46.99)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.49 -
$47.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.26
Resistance Level
$47.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.85
Wall Street Target
$46.99
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
33.9 vs 33.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.44
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$46.54
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$46.63
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→34)
PE COMPRESSION
$46.42
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.8, Growth: 10.3%)
$62.19
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.3%)
$40.01
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.3%)
$34.01
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$62.00
(+34%)
Analyst growth 21.2%, PE expands to 45.3
Base Case
$56.36
(+22%)
Market implied 21.2%, PE stable at 41.2
Bear Case
$31.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 10, 2026 9:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Reyne K Wisecup
SELL
36920 shares
2026-03-05
Scott Satterlee
SELL
15964 shares
2026-01-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-23
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