Fastenal (FAST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$49.32
0.31 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
+0.18%
30d:
-5.55%
90d:
+6.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $49.60 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FAST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FAST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.68
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $49.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.13 to $51.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.3) is in line with its historical norms (34.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.65, while resistance sits at $51.52.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.65, while resistance sits at $51.52.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$49.13 -
$51.59
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.53)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.13 -
$51.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.65
Resistance Level
$51.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.34
Wall Street Target
$48.53
(-1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
35.3 vs 34.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.96
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$50.61
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$51.27
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→34)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$66.88
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$38.17
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$32.44
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.18
Bull Case
$63.76
(+29%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 45.7
Base Case
$57.96
(+18%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 41.5
Bear Case
$33.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FAST price and gamma walls.
