FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$47.71
1.05 (2.25%)
▲
5d:
+1.47%
30d:
-0.08%
90d:
+6.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.37
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $47.71, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.71 to $47.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.3) is in line with its historical norms (33.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.06, while resistance sits at $49.16.
Market Sentiment: FAST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.06, while resistance sits at $49.16.
Market Sentiment: FAST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$45.71 -
$47.74
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.84)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.71 -
$47.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.06
Resistance Level
$49.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.32
Wall Street Target
$47.84
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
34.3 vs 33.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.04
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$48.38
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$48.72
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→34)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.3, Growth: 10.6%)
$64.47
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.6%)
$38.94
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 10.6%)
$33.10
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$60.98
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.8%, PE expands to 43.9
Base Case
$55.44
(+16%)
Market implied 18.8%, PE stable at 39.9
Bear Case
$31.73
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Reyne K Wisecup
SELL
36920 shares
2026-03-05
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