FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$51.26
0.60 (1.18%)
â˛
5d:
+0.47%
30d:
+11.07%
90d:
+17.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FAST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FAST is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.63
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $51.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.20 to $51.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 36.8) is in line with its historical norms (33.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$46.20 -
$51.26
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
36.7%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($48.53)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.20 -
$51.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.38
Resistance Level
$52.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.77
Wall Street Target
$48.53
(-5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
36.8 vs 33.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.70
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$54.17
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$55.69
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37â34)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.35
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.8, Growth: 10.7%)
$69.53
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$37.95
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$32.26
(-37%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (37x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.15
Bull Case
$67.56
(+32%)
Analyst growth 21.2%, PE expands to 48.5
Base Case
$61.42
(+20%)
Market implied 21.2%, PE stable at 44.1
Bear Case
$34.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Reyne K Wisecup
SELL
36920 shares
2026-03-05
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