Is FAST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, FAST is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: FAST is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of FAST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for FAST to be between $48.97 and $50.61. The current price is $50.75.

What is the analyst price target for FAST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for FAST is $48.84. This implies a potential upside of -3.8% from current levels.

Fastenal (FAST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FAST - Fastenal Co

RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

$50.75

0.52 (1.05%) ▲

5d: +0.63%

30d: +5.88%

90d: +5.05%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your FAST Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 14, 2026 11d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 17, 2026 at $49.18 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 5.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FAST is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$49.76

Based on 7.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$30.90

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $50.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.97 to $50.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 36.3) is in line with its historical norms (34.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $48.97 - $50.61

Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 47.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.84)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $48.97 - $50.61

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $48.53

Resistance Level $51.41

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 36.31

Wall Street Target $48.84 (-3.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 14.6%

Profit Margin 15.4%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.1% premium

PE vs Historical 36.3 vs 34.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $51.82 (+2%)

2-Year Target $52.90 (+4%)

3-Year Target $54.01 (+6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 36→34) PE COMPRESSION $50.73 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 36.3, Growth: 10.7%) $68.89 (+36%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.7%) $38.71 (-24%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 10.7%) $32.90 (-35%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 42.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17

Bull Case $66.00 (+30%)

Analyst growth 19.5%, PE expands to 47.2

Base Case $60.00 (+18%)

Market implied 19.5%, PE stable at 42.9

Bear Case $34.15 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced FAST Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FAST price and gamma walls.

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