First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCF - First Commonwealth Financial Corporation
$21.31
0.06 (0.28%)
▲
5d:
+0.71%
30d:
-1.43%
90d:
+8.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.51
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCF is currently trading at $21.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.88 to $21.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FCF scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.08 (+13.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FCF scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.08 (+13.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$20.88 -
$21.57
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.88 -
$21.57
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.86
(4.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.47
Resistance Level
$21.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.84
Wall Street Target
$24.08
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.5%
Profit Margin
33.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.06
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$22.83
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$23.63
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$58.61
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 13.9%)
$31.49
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$26.76
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$27.69
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$25.18
(+18%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$14.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James R Reske
SELL
2072 shares
2026-04-06
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Advanced FCF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FCF price and gamma walls.
