FCF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCF - First Commonwealth Financial Corporation
$20.42
0.13 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
-0.34%
30d:
+4.56%
90d:
+9.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.71
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCF is currently trading at $20.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.44 to $20.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$19.44 -
$20.43
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.44 -
$20.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.50
Resistance Level
$19.71
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.39
Wall Street Target
$21.33
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Profit Margin
31.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.03
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$21.66
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$22.31
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.1%)
$63.63
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 14.1%)
$30.36
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 14.1%)
$25.80
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$28.85
(+41%)
Analyst growth 29.3%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$26.23
(+29%)
Market implied 29.3%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$13.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James R Reske
SELL
2072 shares
2026-04-06
James R Reske
SELL
2072 shares
2026-03-05
Jane Grebenc
SELL
18598 shares
2026-02-06
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