Ferrovial SE Ordinary Shares (FER) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FER - Ferrovial SE Ordinary Shares
$49.71
-0.31 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
+1.74%
30d:
-10.08%
90d:
-21.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FER trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FER trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.92
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FER is currently trading at $49.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.07 to $55.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 42.0) compared to its historical average (52.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FER is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $48.00, while resistance sits at $51.52.
Market Sentiment: FER scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.96 (+48.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FER is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $48.00, while resistance sits at $51.52.
Market Sentiment: FER scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.96 (+48.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$50.07 -
$55.12
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.8% below Wall St target ($73.96)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 81/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.07 -
$55.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.00
Resistance Level
$51.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.98
Wall Street Target
$73.96
(+48.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.0%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.0 vs 52.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.28
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$43.09
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$40.11
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→52)
$49.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.0, Growth: 12.5%)
$70.72
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.5%)
$33.46
(-33%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.5%)
$28.44
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 27.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$35.22
(-29%)
Analyst growth -36.0%, PE expands to 29.7
Base Case
$32.02
(-36%)
Market implied -36.0%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$34.01
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.0 to 52.1
Stabilization Target:
$61.70
(+24.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FER price and gamma walls.
