First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FFIN - First Financial Bankshares Inc
$30.31
-0.02 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
-0.54%
30d:
-5.8%
90d:
-12.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.39
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FFIN is currently trading at $30.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.04 to $32.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FFIN scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.71 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FFIN scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.71 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.04 -
$32.89
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($34.71)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 81/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.04 -
$32.89
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.52
Resistance Level
$32.07
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.24
Wall Street Target
$34.71
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.0%
Profit Margin
43.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.54
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$28.77
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$28.03
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$30.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$48.24
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$34.58
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 4.5%)
$29.40
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.02
Bull Case
$34.53
(+14%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$31.39
(+4%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$20.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$32.80
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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