First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FFIN - First Financial Bankshares Inc
$30.77
-0.66 (-2.10%)
▼
5d:
-4.29%
30d:
-6.93%
90d:
-11.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.04
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FFIN is currently trading at $30.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.70 to $33.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.29 (+17.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.29 (+17.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.70 -
$33.16
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($36.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.70 -
$33.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.76
Resistance Level
$32.45
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.27
Wall Street Target
$36.29
(+17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Profit Margin
42.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.97
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$29.19
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$28.43
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$30.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.4%)
$50.10
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$36.01
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 5.4%)
$30.60
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case
$39.86
(+30%)
Analyst growth 15.3%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$36.23
(+18%)
Market implied 15.3%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$21.37
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$33.41
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 5:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is FFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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