First Hawaiian (FHB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$24.87
-0.15 (-0.60%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.87%
30d:
+1.63%
90d:
-10.73%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (77%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$24.74 â $25.54
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.9x
FAIR
vs 10.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$28.89
+16.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$24.79 / $26.42
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FHB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.35
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.06
0.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FHB is currently trading at $24.87, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.74 to $25.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FHB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.89 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FHB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.89 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.74 -
$25.54
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$24.74 -
$25.54
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$24.79
Resistance Level
$26.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.89)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.88
Wall Street Target
$28.89
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.9%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.07
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$23.30
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$22.56
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â11)
$24.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.1%)
$70.40
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 12.1%)
$35.01
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$29.76
(+20%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.23
Bull Case
$31.08
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.9%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$28.25
(+14%)
Market implied 12.9%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$17.01
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$27.45
(+10.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FHB)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Oct 5, 2023
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on FHB are bearish (sentiment score -0.23) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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