First Hawaiian (FHB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FHB - First Hawaiian, Inc. Common Stock
$25.26
0.36 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
+0.04%
30d:
-1.9%
90d:
-16.74%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FHB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FHB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.40
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FHB is currently trading at $25.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.11 to $25.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FHB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FHB scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.78 (+17.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FHB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FHB scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.78 (+17.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$25.11 -
$25.93
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.78)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.11 -
$25.93
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.28
Resistance Level
$25.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.02
Wall Street Target
$29.78
(+17.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.45
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$23.67
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$22.91
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$25.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$63.42
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$31.15
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 7.2%)
$26.48
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.30
Bull Case
$29.73
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$27.02
(+9%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$16.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$27.73
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FHB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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