First Hawaiian (FHB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FHB - First Hawaiian, Inc. Common Stock
$26.13
0.80 (3.16%)
▲
5d:
+4.77%
30d:
+5.45%
90d:
-7.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FHB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FHB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.64
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FHB is currently trading at $26.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.68 to $25.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FHB is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.11 (+11.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FHB is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.11 (+11.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.68 -
$25.57
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.11)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.68 -
$25.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.10
Resistance Level
$26.16
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.32
Wall Street Target
$29.11
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.61
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$25.10
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$24.59
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$26.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$62.10
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 7.3%)
$32.28
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 7.3%)
$27.43
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.30
Bull Case
$30.67
(+17%)
Analyst growth 10.1%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$27.88
(+7%)
Market implied 10.1%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$17.22
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$27.85
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FHB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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