FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
SAVINGS INSTITUTION, FEDERALLY CHARTERED
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Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$36.88
+0.18 (+0.49%)
▲
5d:
+1.4%
30d:
+6.31%
90d:
+5.04%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (47%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$35.13 – $36.82
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.9x
FAIR
vs 9.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$38.33
+3.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$35.08 / $38.33
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: FMAO is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.45
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMAO is currently trading at $36.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.13 to $36.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.08, while resistance sits at $38.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.08, while resistance sits at $38.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.13 -
$36.82
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$35.13 -
$36.82
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$35.08
Resistance Level
$38.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.85
Wall Street Target
$38.33
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.8%
Profit Margin
32.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.06
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$39.28
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$40.53
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.00
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.5%)
$79.25
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 5.5%)
$43.28
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 5.5%)
$36.79
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.11
Bull Case
$44.60
(+22%)
Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$40.55
(+11%)
Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$25.22
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMAO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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