Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMAO - Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
$36.54
0.65 (1.81%)
▲
5d:
+3.45%
30d:
+4.31%
90d:
+17.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMAO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMAO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.06
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMAO is currently trading at $36.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.81 to $35.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMAO scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMAO scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.81 -
$35.70
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.81 -
$35.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.12
Resistance Level
$36.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.98
Wall Street Target
$36.00
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.0%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.25
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$38.67
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$40.14
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.0%)
$71.06
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 3.0%)
$39.27
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 3.0%)
$33.38
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.89
Bull Case
$43.81
(+22%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$39.83
(+11%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$23.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMAO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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