Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMAO - Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
$35.47
0.06 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
+0.8%
30d:
+0.94%
90d:
+25.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMAO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMAO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.67
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMAO is currently trading at $35.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.94 to $35.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMAO scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMAO scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.94 -
$35.15
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.94 -
$35.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.69
Resistance Level
$35.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.85
Wall Street Target
$36.00
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.0%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.85
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$38.29
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$39.78
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.58
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.0%)
$72.17
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 3.0%)
$38.81
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 3.0%)
$32.99
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.91
Bull Case
$43.77
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.4%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$39.79
(+12%)
Market implied 12.4%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$24.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMAO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert E. Latta
BUY
2026-04-20
Eric D Faust
SELL
1148 shares
2026-03-23
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