First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$51.24
-0.26 (-0.50%)
▼
5d:
+0.79%
30d:
+4.15%
90d:
-1.21%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$49.16 – $51.12
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.9x
FAIR
vs 9.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$58.29
+13.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$49.99 / $53.22
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMBH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.30
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMBH is currently trading at $51.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.16 to $51.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.29 (+13.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.29 (+13.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$49.16 -
$51.12
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$49.16 -
$51.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$49.99
Resistance Level
$53.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($58.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.94
Wall Street Target
$58.29
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.0%
Profit Margin
28.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.16
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$53.10
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$54.06
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$122.91
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$61.49
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 6.3%)
$52.27
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.35
Bull Case
$67.16
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$61.06
(+19%)
Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$35.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FMBH)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) reported strong Q3 earnings, with adjusted EPS of $1.26 beating estimates by 10.5%. The efficiency ratio, net interest margin, average earning assets, and non-performing loans all came in above analyst estimates.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings beat
strong financial metrics
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 4:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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