First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMBH - First Mid Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$51.02
0.17 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
-0.12%
30d:
-1.64%
90d:
+10.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.45
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMBH is currently trading at $51.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.24 to $51.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$50.24 -
$51.87
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.24 -
$51.87
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.93
Resistance Level
$51.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.33
Wall Street Target
$56.50
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.86
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$54.76
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$56.73
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.4%)
$113.33
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 4.4%)
$58.01
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 4.4%)
$49.31
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$68.59
(+34%)
Analyst growth 22.6%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$62.35
(+22%)
Market implied 22.6%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$34.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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