First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMBH - First Mid Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$49.26
-0.62 (-1.24%)
▼
5d:
+1.11%
30d:
+0.1%
90d:
-1.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMBH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMBH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.32
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMBH is currently trading at $49.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.84 to $50.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMBH scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.36 (+14.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMBH scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.36 (+14.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$48.84 -
$50.09
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.36)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.84 -
$50.09
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.91
Resistance Level
$50.54
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.89
Wall Street Target
$56.36
(+14.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.15
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$51.05
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$51.97
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$114.57
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$57.08
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 5.0%)
$48.52
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$67.78
(+38%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$61.62
(+25%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$33.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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