First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMBH - First Mid Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$49.28
0.54 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
-0.22%
30d:
-1.02%
90d:
+1.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMBH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.89
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMBH is currently trading at $49.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.36 to $50.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+14.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+14.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$49.36 -
$50.83
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (41/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.36 -
$50.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.88
Resistance Level
$50.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.94
Wall Street Target
$56.50
(+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.31
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$51.37
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$52.45
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.05
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.6%)
$115.85
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 4.6%)
$56.47
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 4.6%)
$48.00
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$65.93
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.0%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$59.94
(+22%)
Market implied 23.0%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$33.14
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 11:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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