First Bank (FRBA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$19.73
-0.12 (-0.60%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.94%
30d:
+11.98%
90d:
+3.79%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (39%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$17.71 â $19.77
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.1x
FAIR
vs 9.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$21.67
+9.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$19.17 / $21.29
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FRBA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.53
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRBA is currently trading at $19.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.71 to $19.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRBA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FRBA scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRBA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FRBA scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$17.71 -
$19.77
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$17.71 -
$19.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$19.17
Resistance Level
$21.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.10
Wall Street Target
$21.67
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Profit Margin
31.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.52
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$21.34
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$22.19
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.77
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.9%)
$58.84
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 14.9%)
$29.93
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 14.9%)
$25.44
(+29%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.72
Bull Case
$24.80
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.6%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$22.54
(+14%)
Market implied 13.6%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$13.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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