FRME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRME - First Merchants Corp
$42.03
0.09 (0.21%)
▲
5d:
-3.82%
30d:
+0.33%
90d:
+4.47%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FRME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FRME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.72
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRME is currently trading at $42.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.46 to $44.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+14.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+14.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$42.46 -
$44.02
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 2.8% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.46 -
$44.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.60
Resistance Level
$43.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.38
Wall Street Target
$48.00
(+14.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.7%
Profit Margin
29.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.53
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$43.04
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$43.56
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.80
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.0%)
$140.42
(+234%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 16.0%)
$65.62
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 16.0%)
$55.77
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$66.70
(+59%)
Analyst growth 44.6%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$60.63
(+44%)
Market implied 44.6%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$28.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Larry W Myers
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-26
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