First Merchants (FRME) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRME - First Merchants Corp
$40.15
0.57 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
-1.38%
30d:
-3.65%
90d:
-7.55%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FRME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FRME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.85
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.89
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRME is currently trading at $40.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.32 to $41.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $38.62, while resistance sits at $41.41.
Market Sentiment: FRME scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+19.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $38.62, while resistance sits at $41.41.
Market Sentiment: FRME scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+19.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.32 -
$41.68
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.32 -
$41.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.62
Resistance Level
$41.41
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.94
Wall Street Target
$48.00
(+19.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.7%
Profit Margin
29.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.99
(0%)
2-Year Target
$39.83
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$39.67
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$40.37
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.2%)
$143.60
(+258%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 16.2%)
$62.95
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 16.2%)
$53.51
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$63.06
(+57%)
Analyst growth 44.8%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$57.33
(+43%)
Market implied 44.8%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$26.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$40.86
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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