First Merchants (FRME) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRME - First Merchants Corp
$41.01
0.18 (0.44%)
▲
5d:
+3.56%
30d:
+1.3%
90d:
-3.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FRME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FRME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.41
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRME is currently trading at $41.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.36 to $40.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRME scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.50 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRME scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.50 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.36 -
$40.88
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 2.8% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.36 -
$40.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.38
Resistance Level
$41.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.13
Wall Street Target
$46.50
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.7%
Profit Margin
29.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.95
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$41.08
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$41.20
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.59
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.9%)
$138.22
(+239%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 15.9%)
$63.57
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 15.9%)
$54.03
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$63.38
(+55%)
Analyst growth 44.2%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$57.62
(+41%)
Market implied 44.2%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$27.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 10:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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