FRME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRME - First Merchants Corp
$43.63
0.49 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
+2.25%
30d:
+0.44%
90d:
+7.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FRME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FRME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.72
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRME is currently trading at $43.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.74 to $44.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.00 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$42.74 -
$44.12
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with 2.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.74 -
$44.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.60
Resistance Level
$44.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.63
Wall Street Target
$48.00
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.2%
Profit Margin
29.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.13
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$45.15
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$46.19
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.0%)
$145.04
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 16.0%)
$67.35
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 16.0%)
$57.25
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.11
Bull Case
$68.54
(+59%)
Analyst growth 44.1%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$62.31
(+44%)
Market implied 44.1%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$29.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Larry W Myers
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-26
Eva D Scurlock
SELL
3227 shares
2026-02-06
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