FSBW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$42.47
-0.13 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
-2.32%
30d:
-2.5%
90d:
+3.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSBW is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FSBW is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.83
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBW is currently trading at $42.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.72 to $43.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$42.72 -
$43.93
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.72 -
$43.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.71
Resistance Level
$44.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.10
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.62
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$44.79
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$46.00
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$116.44
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$52.80
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 7.5%)
$44.88
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.35
Bull Case
$50.27
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$45.70
(+8%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$28.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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