FS Bancorp (FSBW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$44.01
0.72 (1.66%)
â˛
5d:
-0.55%
30d:
+3.72%
90d:
+0.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FSBW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FSBW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.44
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBW is currently trading at $44.01, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.85 to $44.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$42.85 -
$44.15
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.85 -
$44.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.08
Resistance Level
$44.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.43
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$47.05
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$48.65
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$118.36
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$54.72
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 7.5%)
$46.51
(+6%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$50.85
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.8%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$46.23
(+5%)
Market implied 6.8%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$29.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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