FSBW
FS Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
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FS Bancorp (FSBW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$43.10
-0.42 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
-3.08%
30d:
-3.47%
90d:
-1.82%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (78%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$43.72 – $44.55
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.7x
FAIR
vs 8.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$45.50
+5.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$42.92 / $45.48
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FSBW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.70
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBW is currently trading at $43.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.72 to $44.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$43.72 -
$44.55
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$43.72 -
$44.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$42.92
Resistance Level
$45.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with -0.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.65
Wall Street Target
$45.50
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.6%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.69
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$46.35
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$48.06
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.34
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.3%)
$128.93
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 13.3%)
$62.64
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 13.3%)
$53.24
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.73
Bull Case
$57.33
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.8%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$52.12
(+21%)
Market implied 19.8%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$29.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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