FS Bancorp (FSBW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$43.30
-0.11 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
-0.25%
30d:
-1.12%
90d:
+2.12%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSBW is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FSBW is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.44
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBW is currently trading at $43.30, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.62 to $43.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$42.62 -
$43.51
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.62 -
$43.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.30
Resistance Level
$44.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.28
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.64
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$46.03
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$47.45
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.47
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.5%)
$117.02
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 7.5%)
$53.83
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 7.5%)
$45.76
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.35
Bull Case
$51.23
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$46.57
(+8%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$29.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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