FSBW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$42.34
0.54 (1.29%)
▲
5d:
+2.39%
30d:
+2.74%
90d:
+6.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSBW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FSBW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.05
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBW is currently trading at $42.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.07 to $42.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $41.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $41.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.07 -
$42.03
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.07 -
$42.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.00
Resistance Level
$41.85
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.15
Wall Street Target
$45.50
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.51
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$41.22
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$40.93
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$41.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$164.80
(+294%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$61.65
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$52.40
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.31
Bull Case
$54.58
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.0%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$49.62
(+19%)
Market implied 19.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$28.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$42.58
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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