FS Bancorp (FSBW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$44.35
0.02 (0.05%)
▲
5d:
-0.63%
30d:
+2.05%
90d:
+1.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSBW is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FSBW is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.06
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSBW is currently trading at $44.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.84 to $44.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSBW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.84 -
$44.60
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.84 -
$44.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.13
Resistance Level
$45.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.50
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.84
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$47.40
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$49.01
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.5%)
$115.23
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 7.5%)
$55.11
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$46.85
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.36
Bull Case
$52.81
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$48.00
(+8%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$30.50
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSBW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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