GBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBDC - Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
$13.02
0.10 (0.77%)
▲
5d:
+2.12%
30d:
-2.33%
90d:
+2.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBDC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBDC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.59
Based on -1.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBDC is currently trading at $13.02, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.48 to $13.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBDC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBDC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.48 -
$13.08
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with -12.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.48 -
$13.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.78
Resistance Level
$13.49
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.32
Wall Street Target
$13.75
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-41.2%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.16
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.31
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$13.45
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.04
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -7.2%)
$21.94
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -7.2%)
$10.40
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -7.2%)
$8.84
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.77
Bull Case
$23.29
(+79%)
Analyst growth 63.9%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$21.17
(+63%)
Market implied 63.9%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$8.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 1:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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