GBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBDC - Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
$13.20
-0.01 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
+3.29%
90d:
+1.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBDC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBDC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.64
Based on -1.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBDC is currently trading at $13.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.88 to $13.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBDC scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBDC scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.88 -
$13.22
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with -14.0% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.88 -
$13.22
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.93
Resistance Level
$13.46
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.39
Wall Street Target
$13.63
(+3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.36
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.52
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$13.68
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -7.3%)
$20.30
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -7.3%)
$10.52
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -7.3%)
$8.94
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.66
Bull Case
$27.96
(+112%)
Analyst growth 92.4%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$25.42
(+93%)
Market implied 92.4%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$8.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 9:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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