Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBDC - Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
$12.79
0.09 (0.71%)
▲
5d:
-1.39%
30d:
-2.29%
90d:
-4.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.64
Based on -1.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBDC is currently trading at $12.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.90 to $13.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.90 -
$13.22
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -14.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.90 -
$13.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.65
Resistance Level
$13.23
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.07
Wall Street Target
$13.63
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.80
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$12.82
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$12.83
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -7.3%)
$20.41
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: -7.3%)
$10.19
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -7.3%)
$8.66
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$27.30
(+113%)
Analyst growth 95.4%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$24.81
(+94%)
Market implied 95.4%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$8.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 3:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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