Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$12.54
+0.05 (+0.40%)
â˛
5d:
-1.57%
30d:
+2.2%
90d:
-4.42%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (68%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$12.06 â $12.72
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.8x
FAIR
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$13.63
+8.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.42 / $13.25
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GBDC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.70
Based on -1.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBDC is currently trading at $12.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.06 to $12.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.06 -
$12.72
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$12.06 -
$12.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$12.42
Resistance Level
$13.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.82
Wall Street Target
$13.63
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.46
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.39
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$12.32
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
$12.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.3%)
$20.22
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -7.3%)
$10.00
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -7.3%)
$8.50
(-32%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$26.99
(+115%)
Analyst growth 96.4%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$24.53
(+96%)
Market implied 96.4%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$8.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$12.77
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GBDC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Mar 30, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
JPMorgan Chase increased its stake in Golub Capital BDC by 5.2%, suggesting bullish sentiment towards the stock.
Key Retail Themes:
Institutional ownership
Positive investment sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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