Greif (GEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEF - Greif, Inc.
$82.18
0.62 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
-0.58%
30d:
-3.96%
90d:
+11.25%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.32
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEF is currently trading at $82.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.71 to $84.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $78.36, while resistance sits at $85.39.
Market Sentiment: GEF scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $78.36, while resistance sits at $85.39.
Market Sentiment: GEF scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$81.71 -
$84.67
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($87.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.71 -
$84.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.36
Resistance Level
$85.39
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.23
Wall Street Target
$87.20
(+6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.22
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$88.37
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$91.64
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$131.56
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 10.6%)
$111.15
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 10.6%)
$94.48
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.48
Bull Case
$172.50
(+110%)
Analyst growth 92.3%, PE expands to 36.2
Base Case
$156.82
(+91%)
Market implied 92.3%, PE stable at 32.9
Bear Case
$55.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 5:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
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