Greif (GEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEF - Greif, Inc.
$82.32
-1.32 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
-3.18%
30d:
-6.48%
90d:
+22.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.64
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEF is currently trading at $82.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.98 to $88.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$83.98 -
$88.12
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($87.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.98 -
$88.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.49
Resistance Level
$86.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.26
Wall Street Target
$87.20
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.70
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$89.21
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$92.87
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.6%)
$130.08
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 10.6%)
$111.34
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 10.6%)
$94.64
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.43
Bull Case
$180.54
(+119%)
Analyst growth 96.2%, PE expands to 37.9
Base Case
$164.12
(+99%)
Market implied 96.2%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$56.88
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 12:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
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