GEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEF - Greif, Inc.
$71.36
-2.24 (-3.04%)
▼
5d:
-3.4%
30d:
+10.62%
90d:
+1.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.14
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEF is currently trading at $71.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.07 to $74.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$67.07 -
$74.28
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with -0.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.07 -
$74.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.16
Resistance Level
$65.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.86
Wall Street Target
$76.20
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.6%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 14.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.43
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$75.56
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$77.75
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$71.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.9%)
$152.67
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 15.9%)
$111.20
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 15.9%)
$94.52
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.42
Bull Case
$150.49
(+111%)
Analyst growth 85.9%, PE expands to 33.5
Base Case
$136.81
(+92%)
Market implied 85.9%, PE stable at 30.4
Bear Case
$50.05
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 6:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-10
Bala Sathyanarayanan
SELL
2731 shares
2026-02-13
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