GPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPI - Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
$295.66
-4.22 (-1.41%)
▼
5d:
-0.39%
30d:
-9.33%
90d:
-12.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$523.52
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$325.06
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPI is currently trading at $295.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $295.23 to $321.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $299.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $420.17 (+42.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $299.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $420.17 (+42.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$295.23 -
$321.02
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.1% below Wall St target ($420.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$295.23 -
$321.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$299.56
Resistance Level
$343.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.30
Wall Street Target
$420.17
(+42.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$279.40
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$264.03
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$249.51
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$297.13
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$1461.24
(+394%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 12.6%)
$422.55
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 12.6%)
$359.16
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.30
Bull Case
$588.80
(+99%)
Analyst growth 78.5%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$535.27
(+81%)
Market implied 78.5%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$203.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$352.08
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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