GPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPI - Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
$315.25
2.09 (0.67%)
▲
5d:
-3.1%
30d:
+0.02%
90d:
-0.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$533.09
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$331.01
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPI is currently trading at $315.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $309.66 to $326.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $299.56, while resistance sits at $343.45.
Market Sentiment: GPI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $434.50 (+37.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $299.56, while resistance sits at $343.45.
Market Sentiment: GPI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $434.50 (+37.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$309.66 -
$326.33
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.8% below Wall St target ($434.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$309.66 -
$326.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$299.56
Resistance Level
$343.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.64
Wall Street Target
$434.50
(+37.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$301.38
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$288.12
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$275.44
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$315.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$1464.40
(+365%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$446.28
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$379.33
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.31
Bull Case
$621.86
(+97%)
Analyst growth 80.5%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$565.33
(+79%)
Market implied 80.5%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$212.95
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$360.97
(+14.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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