Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSBD - Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
$9.07
-0.10 (-1.09%)
▼
5d:
-4.93%
30d:
-8.66%
90d:
-1.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GSBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GSBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.50
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSBD is currently trading at $9.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.52 to $10.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSBD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GSBD scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSBD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GSBD scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.52 -
$10.04
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.52 -
$10.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.01
Resistance Level
$9.95
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.89
Wall Street Target
$8.94
(-1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.2%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.06
(0%)
2-Year Target
$9.05
(0%)
3-Year Target
$9.04
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$9.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -11.2%)
$17.10
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -11.2%)
$6.61
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -11.2%)
$5.62
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$20.17
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$18.34
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$6.24
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$9.08
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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