Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$8.33
-0.18 (-2.06%)
▼
5d:
-5.4%
30d:
-3.65%
90d:
-15.48%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$8.57 – $8.93
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.5x
FAIR
vs 7.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$8.94
+5.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$8.33 / $9.07
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GSBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.72
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSBD is currently trading at $8.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.57 to $8.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSBD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSBD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.57 -
$8.93
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$8.57 -
$8.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$8.33
Resistance Level
$9.07
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.54
Wall Street Target
$8.94
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.2%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.37
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$8.25
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$8.12
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$8.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -9.4%)
$16.63
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -9.4%)
$6.31
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -9.4%)
$5.37
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$18.70
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.0
Base Case
$17.00
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$5.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$8.91
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share GSBD Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GSBD)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits message suggests confidence in $GSBD's ability to manage delinquencies, while no recent news articles were found.
Key Retail Themes:
Insider confidence
Delinquency management
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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