What is the fair value of GXO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for GXO to be between $46.13 and $47.95. The current price is $46.93.

What is the analyst price target for GXO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for GXO is $68.71. This implies a potential upside of 46.4% from current levels.

GXO Logistics (GXO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

GXO - GXO Logistics, Inc.

TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

$46.93

1.09 (2.38%) ▲

5d: -2.88%

30d: -2.96%

90d: -5.57%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 11, 2026 at $45.84 · last confirmed Sep 14, 2026

Strength: 5.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: GXO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 16.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$90.57

Based on 10.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$56.24

16.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: GXO is currently trading at $46.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.13 to $47.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, GXO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.99, while resistance sits at $48.50.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.71 (+46.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $46.13 - $47.95

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 46.4% below Wall St target ($68.71)
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $46.13 - $47.95

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $44.99

Resistance Level $48.50

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.26

Wall Street Target $68.71 (+46.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -4.0%

Profit Margin 1.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 13.3 vs 15.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $44.35 (-6%)

2-Year Target $41.91 (-11%)

3-Year Target $39.60 (-16%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→16) $46.90 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.7%) $113.64 (+142%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 16.7%) $74.62 (+59%)

Bear: (PE: 11.3, Growth: 16.7%) $63.42 (+35%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 40.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13

Bull Case $100.85 (+115%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.6

Base Case $91.68 (+95%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.6

Bear Case $31.17 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 15.7

Stabilization Target: $55.58 (+18.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +18.4%

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Last updated: September 15, 2026 1:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 AM

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Advanced GXO Option Strategies

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