HBCP
Home Bancorp, Inc.
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Home Bancorp (HBCP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$60.99
-0.46 (-0.75%)
▼
5d:
-1.49%
30d:
-7.24%
90d:
-15.7%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (88%)
Quality Score
56/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$60.53 – $65.65
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.0x
FAIR
vs 10.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$68.00
+10.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$60.42 / $63.68
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HBCP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.16
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBCP is currently trading at $60.99, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.53 to $65.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HBCP scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.00 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HBCP scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.00 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$60.53 -
$65.65
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$60.53 -
$65.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$60.42
Resistance Level
$63.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (83/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($68.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 83/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.99
Wall Street Target
$68.00
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.5%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.59
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$59.74
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$58.91
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$61.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.8%)
$157.24
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 8.8%)
$79.11
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.8%)
$67.25
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.67
Bull Case
$73.64
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$66.95
(+9%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$41.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$63.96
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
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Net
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