HBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HBCP - Home Bancorp, Inc.
$66.31
0.03 (0.05%)
▲
5d:
-2.6%
30d:
+2.69%
90d:
+11.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.95
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBCP is currently trading at $66.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.87 to $66.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$63.87 -
$66.65
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($68.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.87 -
$66.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.17
Resistance Level
$67.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.59
Wall Street Target
$68.13
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.17
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$68.05
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$68.93
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.2%)
$158.78
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 5.2%)
$77.22
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 5.2%)
$65.64
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.95
Bull Case
$76.71
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$69.73
(+5%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$45.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Chris P Rader
BUY
500 shares
2026-02-19
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