Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$21.19
-0.08 (-0.38%)
▼
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
+11.59%
90d:
+3.01%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$19.36 – $21.05
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.4x
FAIR
vs 8.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$24.00
+13.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$20.64 / $22.00
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HBNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.60
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBNC is currently trading at $21.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.36 to $21.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HBNC scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.00 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HBNC scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.00 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.36 -
$21.05
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$19.36 -
$21.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$20.64
Resistance Level
$22.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.44
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Profit Margin
35.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.95
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$22.74
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$23.56
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.21
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.7%)
$51.10
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$24.30
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$20.65
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.25
Bull Case
$23.33
(+10%)
Analyst growth -0.3%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$21.21
(+0%)
Market implied -0.3%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$14.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 13, 2026 5:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HBNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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