HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$16.41
0.66 (4.16%)
▲
5d:
+3.37%
30d:
+1.96%
90d:
+5.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.22
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.73
30.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $16.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.87 to $15.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.7) compared to its historical average (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $16.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.73 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $16.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.73 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.87 -
$15.89
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.6% below Wall St target ($20.73)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.87 -
$15.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.80
Resistance Level
$16.43
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.72
Wall Street Target
$20.73
(+31.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.7 vs 6.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.33
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$13.04
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$11.87
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$15.86
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 21.7%)
$124.88
(+693%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.7, Growth: 21.7%)
$28.41
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$24.15
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.59
Bull Case
$35.53
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$32.30
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$10.98
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.7 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$21.04
(+33.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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