HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$14.99
-0.12 (-0.79%)
▼
5d:
-7.98%
30d:
+3.95%
90d:
-9.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.82
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.11
37.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $14.99, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.76 to $16.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.5) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.48, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.89 (+46.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.48, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.89 (+46.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.76 -
$16.62
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.0% below Wall St target ($21.89)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.76 -
$16.62
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.48
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.49
Wall Street Target
$21.89
(+46.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.49
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.14
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.93
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$15.58
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.7%)
$131.20
(+775%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.5, Growth: 21.7%)
$27.04
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 21.7%)
$22.98
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$33.24
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$30.22
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$10.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.5 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$21.38
(+42.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 2:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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