Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$16.08
-0.29 (-1.77%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.01%
30d:
-3.77%
90d:
-16.51%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$15.73 â $17.15
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
4.8x
CHEAP
vs 6.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$22.19
+38.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$14.27 / $17.98
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HMY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.40
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.60
28.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $16.08, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.73 to $17.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.8) compared to its historical average (6.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 198.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.27, while resistance sits at $17.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+38.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.27, while resistance sits at $17.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+38.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$15.73 -
$17.15
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$15.73 -
$17.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$14.27
Resistance Level
$17.98
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.0% below Wall St target ($22.19)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.81
Wall Street Target
$22.19
(+38.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
198.8%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.8 vs 6.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.94
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$13.88
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$12.89
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â6)
$16.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.7%)
$119.64
(+644%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.8, Growth: 21.7%)
$29.00
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.1, Growth: 21.7%)
$24.65
(+53%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.74
Bull Case
$21.95
(+37%)
Analyst growth 21.9%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$19.95
(+24%)
Market implied 21.9%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$11.13
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.8 to 6.0
Stabilization Target:
$20.04
(+24.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HMY)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Mar 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on HMY are bullish (sentiment score +0.15) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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