HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$23.54
1.52 (6.90%)
▲
5d:
+21.09%
30d:
+51.97%
90d:
+36.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: HMY is 18.2% above its trading range ($19.91). Market expects 4.3% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: HMY is 18.2% above its trading range ($19.91). Market expects 4.3% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.61
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $23.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.00 to $19.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $20.73. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $20.73. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$15.00 -
$19.91
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
15.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+18.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.9%)
- BEARISH: Trading 12.0% above Wall St target ($20.73)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.00 -
$19.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.11
Resistance Level
$23.65
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.05
Wall Street Target
$20.73
(-12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.55
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$25.61
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$26.71
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 21.7%)
$120.90
(+414%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$42.46
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$36.09
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$48.44
(+106%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$44.04
(+87%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$14.97
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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