Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$16.21
-0.64 (-3.80%)
▼
5d:
-4.53%
30d:
-13.45%
90d:
+2.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.00
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.98
29.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $16.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.62 to $19.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.8) compared to its historical average (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 198.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+36.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+36.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.62 -
$19.02
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.9% below Wall St target ($22.19)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.62 -
$19.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.06
Resistance Level
$17.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.85
Wall Street Target
$22.19
(+36.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
198.8%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.9 vs 6.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.03
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$13.93
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$12.91
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$16.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.7%)
$119.64
(+638%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.9, Growth: 21.7%)
$29.24
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.1, Growth: 21.7%)
$24.85
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.74
Bull Case
$22.59
(+39%)
Analyst growth 21.9%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$20.54
(+27%)
Market implied 21.9%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$11.46
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.9 to 6.1
Stabilization Target:
$20.37
(+25.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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