Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$17.38
-0.14 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
-8.38%
30d:
-10.64%
90d:
+6.69%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.61
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.35
25.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $17.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.32 to $21.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 198.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+27.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+27.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.32 -
$21.16
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.7% below Wall St target ($22.19)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 30% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.32 -
$21.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.15
Resistance Level
$19.95
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.20
Wall Street Target
$22.19
(+27.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
198.8%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 6.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.42
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$15.52
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$14.67
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$17.48
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 21.7%)
$122.89
(+607%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 21.7%)
$31.35
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: 21.7%)
$26.64
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$23.07
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.7%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$20.97
(+21%)
Market implied 19.7%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$11.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$20.71
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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