Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$20.64
0.45 (2.23%)
â˛
5d:
-0.58%
30d:
+3.93%
90d:
+35.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HMY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HMY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.61
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.35
11.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $20.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.52 to $21.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 198.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$18.52 -
$21.74
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.52)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.52 -
$21.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.02
Resistance Level
$21.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.18
Wall Street Target
$21.52
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
198.8%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.60
(0%)
2-Year Target
$20.56
(0%)
3-Year Target
$20.52
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â6)
$20.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.7%)
$121.50
(+489%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 21.7%)
$37.23
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 21.7%)
$31.64
(+53%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.81
Bull Case
$26.40
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$24.00
(+16%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$13.73
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$20.71
(+0.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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