Hanover Bancorp (HNVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNVR - Hanover Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$25.23
0.31 (1.24%)
▲
5d:
-3.18%
30d:
-5.47%
90d:
+8.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HNVR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HNVR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.76
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNVR is currently trading at $25.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.01 to $27.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNVR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HNVR scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNVR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HNVR scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.01 -
$27.30
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.01 -
$27.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.51
Resistance Level
$27.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.71
Wall Street Target
$27.33
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.5%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.73
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$26.25
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$26.77
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 26.6%)
$97.51
(+287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 26.6%)
$51.21
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 26.6%)
$43.53
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$50.83
(+102%)
Analyst growth 85.4%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$46.21
(+83%)
Market implied 85.4%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$16.95
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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