Hanover Bancorp (HNVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$21.70
0.00 (-0.02%)
▼
5d:
-5.69%
30d:
-11.54%
90d:
-20.95%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$22.52 – $24.75
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.2x
FAIR
vs 10.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$26.50
+22.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$20.96 / $24.14
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HNVR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.76
24.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNVR is currently trading at $21.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.52 to $24.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNVR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $20.96, while resistance sits at $24.14.
Market Sentiment: HNVR scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.50 (+22.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNVR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $20.96, while resistance sits at $24.14.
Market Sentiment: HNVR scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.50 (+22.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.52 -
$24.75
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$22.52 -
$24.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$20.96
Resistance Level
$24.14
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (19/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($26.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.22
Wall Street Target
$26.50
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.05
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$20.42
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$19.81
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$21.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.6%)
$94.93
(+337%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 26.6%)
$44.05
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 26.6%)
$37.45
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40
Bull Case
$40.23
(+85%)
Analyst growth 68.2%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$36.57
(+69%)
Market implied 68.2%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$14.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$23.79
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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