Home BancShares (HOMB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$30.23
-0.17 (-0.56%)
▼
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+6.07%
90d:
-2.86%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (47%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$28.63 – $30.18
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.6x
FAIR
vs 11.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$32.75
+8.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$29.41 / $31.25
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HOMB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.64
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOMB is currently trading at $30.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.63 to $30.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOMB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $29.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOMB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $29.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$28.63 -
$30.18
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$28.63 -
$30.18
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$29.41
Resistance Level
$31.25
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$32.75
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Profit Margin
43.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.77
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$31.33
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$31.89
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.6%)
$55.84
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 2.6%)
$32.69
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 2.6%)
$27.79
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.44
Bull Case
$35.63
(+18%)
Analyst growth 6.5%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$32.39
(+7%)
Market implied 6.5%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$20.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HOMB)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Apr 20, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The CEO of $HOMB, Allison John W, purchased a large number of shares, boosting his total holdings to 7,197,008. This bullish sentiment is reflected in the 100.0% bullish sentiment on StockTwits.
Key Retail Themes:
CEO buy
Share ownership
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOMB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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