Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRMY - Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$38.31
-0.39 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
+2.13%
30d:
-7.75%
90d:
+7.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRMY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRMY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.97
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRMY is currently trading at $38.31, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.31 to $41.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.5) is in line with its historical norms (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 88.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRMY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.99, while resistance sits at $40.57.
Market Sentiment: HRMY scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.25 (+25.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRMY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.99, while resistance sits at $40.57.
Market Sentiment: HRMY scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.25 (+25.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$38.31 -
$41.49
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.9% below Wall St target ($48.25)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.31 -
$41.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.99
Resistance Level
$40.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.47
Wall Street Target
$48.25
(+25.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
88.2%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.5 vs 5.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.39
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$36.49
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$35.62
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$38.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 34.1%)
$335.78
(+777%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 34.1%)
$92.47
(+141%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 34.1%)
$78.60
(+105%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$85.14
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$77.40
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$26.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$41.33
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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