Hercules Capital (HTGC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$16.12
-0.25 (-1.53%)
▼
5d:
-1.77%
30d:
-2.54%
90d:
-2.89%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$16.28 – $16.65
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.3x
FAIR
vs 8.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$19.50
+21.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.87 / $16.93
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HTGC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.54
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTGC is currently trading at $16.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.28 to $16.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.28 -
$16.65
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$16.28 -
$16.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$15.87
Resistance Level
$16.93
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($19.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.27
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.4%
Profit Margin
62.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.10
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.09
(0%)
3-Year Target
$16.07
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$16.14
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.5%)
$40.53
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 1.5%)
$16.87
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 1.5%)
$14.34
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case
$18.78
(+17%)
Analyst growth 4.3%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$17.07
(+6%)
Market implied 4.3%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$11.13
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$16.19
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HTGC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Senseonics Holdings (SENS) reported record Q3 revenue of $19.6 million, up 140% YoY, and raised full-year revenue guidance to $68-$70 million.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings report
revenue growth
guidance increase
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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