Hercules Capital (HTGC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTGC - Hercules Capital, Inc.
$17.41
0.02 (0.12%)
â˛
5d:
-1.75%
30d:
+4.88%
90d:
+12.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HTGC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HTGC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.61
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTGC is currently trading at $17.41, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.80 to $17.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+12.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+12.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$16.80 -
$17.61
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($19.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.80 -
$17.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.35
Resistance Level
$17.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.85
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.7%
Profit Margin
67.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.83
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$18.26
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$18.69
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.32
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 1.8%)
$41.85
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 1.8%)
$18.36
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 1.8%)
$15.61
(-10%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$18.91
(+9%)
Analyst growth -1.2%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$17.19
(-1%)
Market implied -1.2%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$11.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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