Hercules Capital (HTGC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTGC - Hercules Capital, Inc.
$16.94
0.13 (0.77%)
▲
5d:
+0.83%
30d:
-4.13%
90d:
+6.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HTGC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HTGC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.83
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTGC is currently trading at $16.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.09 to $17.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+15.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+15.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.09 -
$17.70
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($19.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.09 -
$17.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.61
Resistance Level
$17.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.61
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.7%
Profit Margin
67.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.16
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.38
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$17.61
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.97
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 1.8%)
$42.33
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 1.8%)
$17.87
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 1.8%)
$15.19
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.00
Bull Case
$18.19
(+7%)
Analyst growth -1.6%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$16.53
(-2%)
Market implied -1.6%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$11.43
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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