Hercules Capital (HTGC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTGC - Hercules Capital, Inc.
$16.27
-0.01 (-0.06%)
▼
5d:
-0.43%
30d:
-5.52%
90d:
+4.03%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.88
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTGC is currently trading at $16.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.46 to $17.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 54.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HTGC scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.46 -
$17.36
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($19.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 78/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.46 -
$17.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.96
Resistance Level
$16.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.27
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.7%
Profit Margin
67.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.25
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.24
(0%)
3-Year Target
$16.22
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$16.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.9%)
$41.32
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 1.9%)
$17.20
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 1.9%)
$14.62
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.01
Bull Case
$17.53
(+8%)
Analyst growth -2.1%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$15.93
(-2%)
Market implied -2.1%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$11.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$16.33
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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