HUM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HUM - Humana Inc.
$374.50
10.64 (2.92%)
▲
5d:
-1.74%
30d:
-5.61%
90d:
+60.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HUM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HUM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$587.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$364.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HUM is currently trading at $374.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $378.41 to $403.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.7) compared to its historical average (18.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $355.81, while resistance sits at $407.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $355.81, while resistance sits at $407.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$378.41 -
$403.61
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($407.83)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.6% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$378.41 -
$403.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$355.81
Resistance Level
$407.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.72
Wall Street Target
$407.83
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.6% premium
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 18.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$402.96
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$433.59
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$466.54
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$375.76
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: 80.4%)
$1263.94
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 80.4%)
$1153.18
(+208%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 80.4%)
$980.20
(+162%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.59
Bull Case
$622.95
(+66%)
Analyst growth 55.6%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$566.32
(+51%)
Market implied 55.6%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$247.42
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HUM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Sanjay K Shetty
BUY
810 shares
2026-02-23
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