HUM Humana Inc. HOSPITAL & MEDICAL SERVICE PLANS

Humana (HUM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$450.00
+6.32 (+1.42%) ▲
5d: +3.75% 30d: +4.12% 90d: +17.09%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$407.12 – $434.87
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
24.9x STRETCHED
vs 20.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$490.08
+8.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$399.35 / $451.04
Trend: Strong Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HUM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 6, 2026 at $433.74 · last confirmed Nov 12, 2026

Strength: 6.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$704.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$437.27
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: HUM is currently trading at $450.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $407.12 to $434.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.9) compared to its historical average (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.6% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $451.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: HUM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $407.12 - $434.87
Company Quality Score 34/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 27.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $407.12 - $434.87
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $399.35
Resistance Level $451.04
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 13, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($490.08)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.6% growth with 26.1% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.89
Wall Street Target $490.08 (+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -17.9%
Profit Margin 0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History +7.6% premium
PE vs Historical 24.9 vs 20.0 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +7.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $484.20 (+8%)
2-Year Target $521.00 (+16%)
3-Year Target $560.60 (+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→20) PE COMPRESSION $450.51 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 24.9, Growth: 90.0%) $1518.75 (+238%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 90.0%) $1211.96 (+169%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 90.0%) $1030.16 (+129%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.25
Bull Case $833.63 (+88%)
Analyst growth 69.8%, PE expands to 47.9
Base Case $757.84 (+71%)
Market implied 69.8%, PE stable at 43.5
Bear Case $303.49 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HUM)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: CVS Health management cautioned about earnings in the Health Services segment for 2027, expecting it to be the low point with adjusted operating income at least $7 billion.
Key Retail Themes: CVS Health earnings Health Services segment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 5:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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