MarineMax (HZO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HZO - MarineMax, Inc.
$52.38
-0.04 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
-0.08%
90d:
+44.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HZO trades at premium valuation expecting 15.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: HZO trades at premium valuation expecting 15.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HZO is currently trading at $52.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.27 to $52.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 33.3) compared to its historical average (21.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 15.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HZO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HZO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$52.27 -
$52.48
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HZO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($49.40)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 15.6% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.27 -
$52.48
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.98
Resistance Level
$52.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.27
Wall Street Target
$49.40
(-5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+15.6% premium
PE vs Historical
33.3 vs 21.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+15.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.55
(+16%)
2-Year Target
$70.00
(+34%)
3-Year Target
$80.92
(+55%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.3, Growth: 121.3%)
$176.78
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 121.3%)
$105.53
(+102%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 121.3%)
$89.70
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 34.48 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.52
Bull Case
$63.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.2
Base Case
$52.38
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.5
Bear Case
$40.07
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HZO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HZO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HZO price and gamma walls.
