ILMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ILMN - Illumina Inc
$174.77
9.83 (5.96%)
▲
5d:
+6.38%
30d:
+21.02%
90d:
+38.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ILMN is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ILMN is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.66
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ILMN is currently trading at $174.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.04 to $167.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.8) compared to its historical average (24.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ILMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $177.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ILMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $177.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$149.04 -
$167.90
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ILMN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.0%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($148.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.04 -
$167.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.95
Resistance Level
$177.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.80
Wall Street Target
$148.56
(-9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
27.8 vs 24.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$172.19
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$179.76
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$187.67
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$164.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.8, Growth: 13.5%)
$241.05
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.5%)
$188.85
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 13.5%)
$160.52
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.50
Bull Case
$191.48
(+16%)
Analyst growth 7.9%, PE expands to 32.3
Base Case
$174.07
(+6%)
Market implied 7.9%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$109.74
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ILMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Patricia Leckman
SELL
2370 shares
2026-02-18
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-02-10
Scott Gottlieb
BUY
200 shares
2026-02-09
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ILMN price and gamma walls.
