Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$279.24
2.44 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
+2.97%
30d:
+2.13%
90d:
-1.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ITW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ITW is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$366.86
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$227.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $279.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $263.65 to $273.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $279.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $279.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$263.65 -
$273.48
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ITW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($294.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$263.65 -
$273.48
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.20
Resistance Level
$279.71
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.60
Wall Street Target
$294.57
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 22.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$280.64
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$282.04
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$283.45
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$278.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 8.0%)
$351.41
(+26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$308.76
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$262.45
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.03
Bull Case
$341.03
(+22%)
Analyst growth 12.0%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$310.03
(+11%)
Market implied 12.0%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$188.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ITW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.
