Is ITW stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ITW is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ITW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ITW stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ITW to be between $272.94 and $292.94. The current price is $268.16.

What is the analyst price target for ITW?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ITW is $301.86. This implies a potential upside of 12.6% from current levels.

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.

GENERAL INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT

$268.16

2.96 (1.12%) ▲

5d: -1.28%

30d: -8.32%

90d: +5.39%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your ITW Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 23, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $270.12 · last confirmed Sep 8, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

Get Alerted When ITW Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ITW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 8.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$372.32

Based on 6.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$231.18

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $268.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $272.94 to $292.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $261.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $301.86 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $272.94 - $292.94

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

Protect Your Profits

Holding ITW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($301.86)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $272.94 - $292.94

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $261.35

Resistance Level $284.43

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.64

Wall Street Target $301.86 (+12.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 10.1%

Profit Margin 19.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 21.6 vs 22.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $265.48 (-1%)

2-Year Target $262.82 (-2%)

3-Year Target $260.20 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→22) $268.19 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.6, Growth: 8.3%) $340.27 (+27%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.3%) $317.23 (+18%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.3%) $269.64 (+1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 23.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.09

Bull Case $326.04 (+22%)

Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 26.3

Base Case $296.40 (+11%)

Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 23.9

Bear Case $180.34 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 22.3

Stabilization Target: $276.40 (+3.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.1%

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:40 PM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is ITW showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

NEUTRAL

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for ITW.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Specialty Industrial Machinery by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
GEV GE Vernova LLC	STRONG BUY 32 analysts	$1236	66 BUY
ETN Eaton Corporation PLC	STRONG BUY 29 analysts	$476	62 BUY
EMR Emerson Electric Company	STRONG BUY 30 analysts	$172	53 HOLD
PH Parker-Hannifin Corporat…	STRONG BUY 26 analysts	$1161	49 HOLD
ROK Rockwell Automation Inc	HOLD 29 analysts	$479	53 HOLD

GEV GE Vernova LLC

66 BUY

ETN Eaton Corporation…

62 BUY

EMR Emerson Electric …

53 HOLD

PH Parker-Hannifin C…

49 HOLD

ROK Rockwell Automati…

53 HOLD

Advanced ITW Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for ITW

ITW Technical Chart ITW Price Prediction ITW Earnings Date ITW Investment Advisor ITW Fair Price Analyzer ITW Options Advisor ITW Options Chain ITW Options Analysis ITW Competitors

Compare ITW with Peers

ITW vs DOV
Which one to buy?

ITW vs GWW
Which one to buy?

ITW vs EMR
Which one to buy?

ITW vs GPC
Which one to buy?

ITW vs APD
Which one to buy?

ITW vs GPC
Winner: ITW

EMR vs ITW
Winner: EMR

GEV vs ITW

JCI vs ITW

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie