ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
GENERAL INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$289.28
+0.56 (+0.19%)
â˛
5d:
+1.36%
30d:
+7.35%
90d:
-0.53%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
0d
Protect ITW Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (39%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$264.09 â $281.86
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
23.4x
FAIR
vs 22.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$294.14
+1.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$275.55 / $297.17
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ITW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$362.87
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$225.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $289.28, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $264.09 to $281.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $297.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ITW scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $297.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ITW scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$264.09 -
$281.86
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$264.09 -
$281.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$275.55
Resistance Level
$297.17
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ITW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($294.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.40
Wall Street Target
$294.14
(+1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$293.63
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$298.62
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$303.70
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â22)
PE COMPRESSION
$289.39
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$357.75
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$303.59
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$258.05
(-11%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.21
Bull Case
$348.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.1%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$317.01
(+10%)
Market implied 10.1%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$195.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ITW)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) reported Q3 earnings with a beat on EPS and a miss on revenue. StockTwits users, who have a bullish sentiment towards the stock, have highlighted the EPS beat and used tools like Stock Meadow's earnings dashboard to review the results.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings beat
Revenue miss
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 11:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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