ITW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$261.64
-3.67 (-1.38%)
▼
5d:
-0.33%
30d:
+4.69%
90d:
-0.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
Get Alerted When ITW Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ITW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ITW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$353.79
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$219.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $261.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $247.47 to $257.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $257.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $257.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$247.47 -
$257.77
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ITW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($274.54)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$247.47 -
$257.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$242.05
Resistance Level
$257.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.55
Wall Street Target
$274.54
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Profit Margin
19.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 22.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$259.02
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$256.43
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$253.87
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$261.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$325.43
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$322.04
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 7.2%)
$273.73
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.77
Bull Case
$328.95
(+26%)
Analyst growth 12.7%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$299.04
(+14%)
Market implied 12.7%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$180.41
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$269.49
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shelley Moore Capito
SELL
2026-02-24
Axel Beck
SELL
4223 shares
2026-02-05
Ernest Scott Santi
SELL
167345 shares
2026-02-04
Top Rated Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Industrial Machinery by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
GEV
GE Vernova LLC |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$1212 | 64 BUY |
|
ETN
Eaton Corporation PLC |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$452 | 63 BUY |
|
EMR
Emerson Electric Company |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$163 | 60 BUY |
|
PH
Parker-Hannifin Corporat… |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$1032 | 57 HOLD |
|
ROK
Rockwell Automation Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$465 | 60 HOLD |
Advanced ITW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.
