IX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IX - ORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares (each representing One (1) Share of Common Stock)
$37.12
-0.24 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
-5.28%
30d:
-7.06%
90d:
-6.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.72
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IX is currently trading at $37.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.33 to $40.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IX scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.38 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IX scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.38 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.33 -
$40.06
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.33 -
$40.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.78
Resistance Level
$39.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.67
Wall Street Target
$41.38
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
170.6%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.53
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$37.94
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$38.36
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.05
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.1%)
$62.53
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 4.1%)
$41.89
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 4.1%)
$35.61
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$31.18
(-16%)
Analyst growth -24.1%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$28.34
(-24%)
Market implied -24.1%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$25.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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