IX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IX - ORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares (each representing One (1) Share of Common Stock)
$38.49
0.95 (2.53%)
▲
5d:
-4.16%
30d:
-4.01%
90d:
-1.96%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: IX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.06
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IX is currently trading at $38.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.82 to $40.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.82 -
$40.76
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.82 -
$40.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.44
Resistance Level
$40.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.17
Wall Street Target
$41.38
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
170.6%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.64
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$40.83
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$42.06
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.58
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.1%)
$61.52
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$43.44
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 4.1%)
$36.92
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.53
Bull Case
$31.77
(-18%)
Analyst growth -23.1%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$28.88
(-25%)
Market implied -23.1%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$25.53
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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