JCAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCAP - Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
$18.05
0.54 (3.08%)
▲
5d:
+6.49%
30d:
+4.4%
90d:
-6.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.34
Based on 2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCAP is currently trading at $18.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.19 to $17.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: JCAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+44.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: JCAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+44.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.19 -
$17.45
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.0% below Wall St target ($26.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.19 -
$17.45
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.50
Resistance Level
$17.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.21
Wall Street Target
$26.00
(+44.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Profit Margin
25.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 7.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.00
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$16.02
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$15.09
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$17.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.0%)
$65.33
(+262%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 1.0%)
$18.62
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 1.0%)
$15.83
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.15
Bull Case
$10.73
(-39%)
Analyst growth -43.5%, PE expands to 3.7
Base Case
$9.75
(-44%)
Market implied -43.5%, PE stable at 3.4
Bear Case
$11.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$21.52
(+19.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Burton
SELL
385000 shares
2026-01-09
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