Jefferson Capital (JCAP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCAP - Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
$20.41
-0.28 (-1.35%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.58%
30d:
+4.45%
90d:
-0.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JCAP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JCAP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.98
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCAP is currently trading at $20.41, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.47 to $20.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.77, while resistance sits at $21.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.20 (+38.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.77, while resistance sits at $21.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.20 (+38.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$19.47 -
$20.63
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.2% below Wall St target ($28.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.47 -
$20.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.77
Resistance Level
$21.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.64
Wall Street Target
$28.20
(+38.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.0%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.88
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$19.36
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$18.86
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â7)
$20.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.5%)
$65.77
(+222%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 2.5%)
$21.98
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 2.5%)
$18.68
(-9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.91
Bull Case
$45.52
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$41.38
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$14.07
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$22.14
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 11:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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