Jefferson Capital (JCAP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCAP - Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
$21.38
0.18 (0.85%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+1.33%
90d:
+31.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.34
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCAP is currently trading at $21.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.84 to $22.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JCAP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.20 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JCAP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.20 (+31.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$20.84 -
$22.63
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.9% below Wall St target ($28.20)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.84 -
$22.63
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.51
Resistance Level
$21.93
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.95
Wall Street Target
$28.20
(+31.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.0%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.04
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$20.70
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$20.37
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$21.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 2.5%)
$66.79
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 2.5%)
$23.02
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 2.5%)
$19.57
(-9%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$22.45
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 5:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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