JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$151.77
3.12 (2.10%)
▲
5d:
+4.41%
30d:
+8.99%
90d:
+7.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$264.07
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$163.97
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $151.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $140.06 to $147.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.9) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $152.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JCI scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $152.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JCI scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$140.06 -
$147.63
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($165.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$140.06 -
$147.63
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.49
Resistance Level
$152.06
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.87
Wall Street Target
$165.80
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
24.9 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.53
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$153.29
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$154.06
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$151.76
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.9, Growth: 20.4%)
$264.61
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.4%)
$217.05
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 20.4%)
$184.49
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.54
Bull Case
$281.87
(+86%)
Analyst growth 72.4%, PE expands to 46.2
Base Case
$256.25
(+69%)
Market implied 72.4%, PE stable at 42.0
Bear Case
$101.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JCI price and gamma walls.
