JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$143.05
-0.11 (-0.08%)
âŧ
5d:
-6.89%
30d:
-0.17%
90d:
+5.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $153.74 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JCI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JCI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$254.33
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$157.92
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $143.05, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.40 to $151.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.7) is in line with its historical norms (24.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $142.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JCI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.11 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $142.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JCI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.11 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$141.40 -
$151.67
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($163.11)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$141.40 -
$151.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.84
Resistance Level
$156.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.71
Wall Street Target
$163.11
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 24.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.19
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$139.35
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$137.54
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24â25)
$142.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 19.0%)
$240.92
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 19.0%)
$203.93
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 19.0%)
$173.34
(+21%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.51
Bull Case
$270.68
(+89%)
Analyst growth 71.9%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$246.07
(+72%)
Market implied 71.9%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$97.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 24.6
Stabilization Target:
$148.42
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Advanced JCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JCI price and gamma walls.
