JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
AIR-COND & WARM AIR HEATG EQUIP & COMM & INDL REFRIG EQUIP
JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$141.12
-0.37 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-5.86%
30d:
-9.2%
90d:
-7.64%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
0d
Protect JCI Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
61/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$142.28 – $156.64
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
23.0x
FAIR
vs 24.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$174.85
+23.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$131.07 / $160.05
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: JCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 4, 2026 at $138.88 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$268.92
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$166.98
15.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $141.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.28 to $156.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.0) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $131.07, while resistance sits at $160.04.
Market Sentiment: JCI scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $174.85 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $131.07, while resistance sits at $160.04.
Market Sentiment: JCI scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $174.85 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$142.28 -
$156.64
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$142.28 -
$156.64
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$131.07
Resistance Level
$160.05
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding JCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($174.85)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.9% 5-day decline
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.00
Wall Street Target
$174.85
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.1%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.0 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.16
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$135.26
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$132.41
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→25)
$141.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.0, Growth: 21.0%)
$249.91
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$215.76
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$183.40
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.72
Bull Case
$202.29
(+43%)
Analyst growth 30.0%, PE expands to 33.0
Base Case
$183.90
(+30%)
Market implied 30.0%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$96.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.0 to 24.5
Stabilization Target:
$150.30
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (JCI)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Johnson Controls International (JCI) is scheduled to report earnings on October 27, 2026. The stock has shown mixed historical reactions to past earnings reports, with weak correlations between the initial move and the following 5-day and 21-day returns.
Key Retail Themes:
Historical earnings reactions
Johnson Controls International's stock price movement
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
Net
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