Is JCI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, JCI is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: JCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of JCI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for JCI to be between $141.40 and $151.94. The current price is $146.01.

What is the analyst price target for JCI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for JCI is $163.37. This implies a potential upside of 11.9% from current levels.

JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

JCI - Johnson Controls International plc

AIR-COND & WARM AIR HEATG EQUIP & COMM & INDL REFRIG EQUIP

$146.01

3.20 (2.24%) ▲

5d: +2.66%

30d: -4.44%

90d: +1.39%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your JCI Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $144.94 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 19.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$257.81

Based on 11.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$160.08

8.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $146.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.40 to $151.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.1) is in line with its historical norms (24.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $147.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.37 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $141.40 - $151.94

Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 70.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($163.37)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $141.40 - $151.94

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $137.54

Resistance Level $147.05

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.13

Wall Street Target $163.37 (+11.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 15.3%

Profit Margin 14.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 24.1 vs 24.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $145.13 (-1%)

2-Year Target $144.26 (-1%)

3-Year Target $143.40 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 24→25) $146.16 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.1, Growth: 19.5%) $248.94 (+71%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 19.5%) $208.05 (+43%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 19.5%) $176.84 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 40.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.50

Bull Case $271.53 (+86%)

Analyst growth 72.9%, PE expands to 44.9

Base Case $246.85 (+69%)

Market implied 72.9%, PE stable at 40.8

Bear Case $97.11 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.1 to 24.6

Stabilization Target: $148.83 (+1.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.9%

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

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Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

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