JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$151.02
3.08 (2.08%)
▲
5d:
-0.93%
30d:
+3.13%
90d:
+5.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JCI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: JCI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$267.48
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$166.09
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $151.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $143.35 to $154.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.6) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $143.78, while resistance sits at $158.14.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.50 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $143.78, while resistance sits at $158.14.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.50 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$143.35 -
$154.97
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($168.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$143.35 -
$154.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$143.79
Resistance Level
$158.14
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.64
Wall Street Target
$168.50
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.6 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.17
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$151.32
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$151.47
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$150.59
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.6, Growth: 20.8%)
$266.25
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.8%)
$214.57
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 20.8%)
$182.39
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.54
Bull Case
$281.72
(+87%)
Analyst growth 73.1%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$256.11
(+70%)
Market implied 73.1%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$100.60
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JCI price and gamma walls.
