James River Group (JRVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$3.25
+0.04 (+1.09%)
▲
5d:
-17.72%
30d:
-12.4%
90d:
-24.94%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
0d
Protect JRVR Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (55%)
Quality Score
30/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$3.56 – $3.96
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
3.5x
CHEAP
vs 4.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$3.73
+14.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$3.02 / $4.08
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: JRVR is down 17.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.91
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.91
33.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JRVR is currently trading at $3.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.56 to $3.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.5) compared to its historical average (4.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.02, while resistance sits at $4.08.
Market Sentiment: JRVR scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.73 (+14.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.02, while resistance sits at $4.08.
Market Sentiment: JRVR scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.73 (+14.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.56 -
$3.96
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.56 -
$3.96
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$3.02
Resistance Level
$4.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding JRVR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($3.73)
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.54
Wall Street Target
$3.73
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.2%
Profit Margin
-25.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.5 vs 4.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.98
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$2.73
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$2.51
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$3.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.2%)
$34.06
(+948%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.5, Growth: 23.2%)
$6.08
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.0, Growth: 23.2%)
$5.17
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.39
Bull Case
$8.29
(+158%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$7.54
(+135%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$2.56
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.5 to 4.6
Stabilization Target:
$4.22
(+29.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (JRVR)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
May 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits shares profits from buying $JRVR at around $4.10 and holding it, with no recent news articles available.
Key Retail Themes:
Buy and Hold
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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