JRVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JRVR - James River Group Holdings, Ltd
$4.58
0.02 (0.44%)
▲
5d:
+2.0%
30d:
+9.57%
90d:
-26.13%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JRVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JRVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.17
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.31
27.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JRVR is currently trading at $4.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.01 to $4.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.1) compared to its historical average (4.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JRVR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JRVR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.01 -
$4.48
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
34th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 34th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.01 -
$4.48
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.57
(12.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.80
Resistance Level
$4.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.13
Wall Street Target
$5.38
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.3%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 4.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.35
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.12
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$3.91
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$4.55
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.1%)
$46.10
(+907%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.1, Growth: 24.1%)
$8.75
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 24.1%)
$7.43
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$9.94
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$9.04
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$3.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.1 to 4.8
Stabilization Target:
$5.32
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JRVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JRVR price and gamma walls.
