JRVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JRVR - James River Group Holdings, Ltd
$3.97
0.06 (1.53%)
▲
5d:
-4.8%
30d:
-3.41%
90d:
-36.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JRVR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JRVR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.38
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.44
38.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JRVR is currently trading at $3.97, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.92 to $4.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.5) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.80, while resistance sits at $4.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+37.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.80, while resistance sits at $4.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+37.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$3.92 -
$4.16
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.5% below Wall St target ($5.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.92 -
$4.16
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.39
(9.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.80
Resistance Level
$4.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.53
Wall Street Target
$5.38
(+37.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.3%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.5 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.52
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.17
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.85
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$3.96
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.1%)
$46.10
(+1079%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.5, Growth: 24.1%)
$7.47
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.0, Growth: 24.1%)
$6.35
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$8.69
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$7.90
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$2.69
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.5 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.43
(+38.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JRVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JRVR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JRVR price and gamma walls.
