James River Group (JRVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JRVR - James River Group Holdings, Ltd
$3.95
0.10 (2.60%)
â˛
5d:
-5.73%
30d:
-8.35%
90d:
-7.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JRVR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JRVR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.98
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.95
20.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JRVR is currently trading at $3.95, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.95 to $4.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.3) is in line with its historical norms (4.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.74, while resistance sits at $4.22.
Market Sentiment: JRVR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.72 (+19.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.74, while resistance sits at $4.22.
Market Sentiment: JRVR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.72 (+19.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$3.95 -
$4.44
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JRVR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($4.72)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.95 -
$4.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.27
(6.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.74
Resistance Level
$4.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.33
Wall Street Target
$4.73
(+19.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.2%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.3 vs 4.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.84
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$3.74
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$3.64
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4â5)
$3.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 22.8%)
$34.10
(+763%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.3, Growth: 22.8%)
$7.31
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 22.8%)
$6.22
(+57%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.44
Bull Case
$8.47
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$7.70
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$2.62
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.3 to 4.7
Stabilization Target:
$4.29
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JRVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JRVR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JRVR price and gamma walls.
