Kayne Anderson BDC (KBDC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KBDC - Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.
$12.96
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-3.71%
30d:
-4.71%
90d:
-10.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KBDC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.47
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KBDC is currently trading at $12.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.22 to $13.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBDC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KBDC scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBDC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KBDC scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.22 -
$13.77
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.22 -
$13.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.88
Resistance Level
$13.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.23
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+11.9%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.60
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$12.24
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$11.90
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$13.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -3.1%)
$28.93
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -3.1%)
$11.80
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -3.1%)
$10.03
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$20.79
(+60%)
Analyst growth 45.8%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$18.90
(+46%)
Market implied 45.8%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$8.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$14.18
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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