Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$30.37
-0.32 (-1.04%)
▼
5d:
-4.95%
30d:
-6.81%
90d:
-4.35%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KDP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KDP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.47
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KDP is currently trading at $30.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.98 to $32.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.21 (+19.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.21 (+19.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.98 -
$32.32
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($36.21)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.98 -
$32.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.06
Resistance Level
$32.14
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.98
Wall Street Target
$36.21
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
75.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.0%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.22
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$30.07
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$29.92
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$30.21
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.5%)
$69.83
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 10.5%)
$41.02
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$34.86
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$67.52
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$61.38
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.0
Bear Case
$20.87
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.67
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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