KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$34.74
0.77 (2.27%)
▲
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
+3.73%
90d:
-9.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.95
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.36
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $34.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.48 to $35.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.99, while resistance sits at $36.30.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.99, while resistance sits at $36.30.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$33.48 -
$35.28
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.48 -
$35.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.99
Resistance Level
$36.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.91
Wall Street Target
$34.86
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.5%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 14.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.52
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$24.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→14)
$39.74
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -2.2%)
$73.85
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: -2.2%)
$31.74
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: -2.2%)
$26.98
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$73.30
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$66.64
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$22.66
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$54.52
(+60.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+60.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
John Wayne Witt
SELL
5060 shares
2026-02-19
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