Kennametal (KMT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$29.59
-1.52 (-4.89%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.52%
30d:
-1.17%
90d:
-16.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -15.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -15.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.58
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.40
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $29.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.78 to $32.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 928.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMT scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMT scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.78 -
$32.01
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.43)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.78 -
$32.01
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.86
Resistance Level
$32.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.76
Wall Street Target
$31.43
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
928.7%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 12.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$23.97
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$21.57
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â13)
$35.30
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.2%)
$70.75
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: -2.2%)
$27.65
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: -2.2%)
$23.50
(-21%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.41
Bull Case
$29.58
(0%)
Analyst growth -13.5%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$26.89
(-9%)
Market implied -13.5%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$21.15
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$48.42
(+63.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+63.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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