Kennametal (KMT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$32.60
0.93 (2.94%)
▲
5d:
+5.06%
30d:
+10.7%
90d:
-4.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.77
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $32.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.17 to $30.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 928.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KMT scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KMT scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.17 -
$30.92
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.4% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.43)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.17 -
$30.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.20
Resistance Level
$33.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.55
Wall Street Target
$32.43
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
928.7%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$26.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$23.77
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$36.13
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -2.2%)
$72.67
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -2.2%)
$30.46
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: -2.2%)
$25.89
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.55
Bull Case
$29.19
(-11%)
Analyst growth -16.2%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$26.54
(-19%)
Market implied -16.2%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$21.54
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$49.56
(+52.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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