The Timken (TKR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$109.33
0.93 (0.86%)
▲
5d:
-2.72%
30d:
-6.71%
90d:
-22.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.74
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.92
9.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $109.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.73 to $118.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.9) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.20 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.20 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$112.73 -
$118.54
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($144.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.73 -
$118.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.25
Resistance Level
$116.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.89
Wall Street Target
$144.20
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 16.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.61
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$100.94
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$97.41
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$108.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.2%)
$226.54
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 16.2%)
$169.87
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 16.2%)
$144.39
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.69
Bull Case
$249.48
(+130%)
Analyst growth 97.3%, PE expands to 34.3
Base Case
$226.80
(+109%)
Market implied 97.3%, PE stable at 31.2
Bear Case
$78.18
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$120.83
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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