The Timken (TKR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$122.44
3.45 (2.90%)
▲
5d:
+4.25%
30d:
+1.84%
90d:
-13.99%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TKR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TKR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.01
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $122.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.27 to $122.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.47 (+19.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.47 (+19.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$116.27 -
$122.06
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($146.47)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with 7.5% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 13% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$116.27 -
$122.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.58
Resistance Level
$123.11
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.86
Wall Street Target
$146.47
(+19.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.05
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$123.67
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$124.29
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$122.38
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.9%)
$230.78
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.9%)
$190.72
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 15.9%)
$162.11
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.76
Bull Case
$252.82
(+107%)
Analyst growth 93.2%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$229.83
(+88%)
Market implied 93.2%, PE stable at 31.7
Bear Case
$80.91
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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