The Timken (TKR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$119.40
1.24 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
-1.4%
30d:
-8.33%
90d:
-13.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.94
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.04
1.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $119.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.48 to $131.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.75 (+23.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.75 (+23.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$120.48 -
$131.49
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($147.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.48 -
$131.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.22
Resistance Level
$125.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.41
Wall Street Target
$147.75
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.80
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$118.21
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$117.62
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$119.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.0%)
$229.10
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 16.0%)
$186.42
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 16.0%)
$158.46
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$258.36
(+116%)
Analyst growth 98.8%, PE expands to 35.5
Base Case
$234.87
(+97%)
Market implied 98.8%, PE stable at 32.3
Bear Case
$80.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$121.49
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 10:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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