TKR
The Timken Company
BALL & ROLLER BEARINGS
The Timken (TKR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$110.41
-0.15 (-0.14%)
âŧ
5d:
+10.48%
30d:
-1.7%
90d:
-17.3%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (83%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$107.82 â $116.34
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.0x
FAIR
vs 16.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$140.75
+27.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$98.77 / $118.67
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TKR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.76
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.20
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $110.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.82 to $116.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $98.77, while resistance sits at $118.67.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.75 (+27.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $98.77, while resistance sits at $118.67.
Market Sentiment: TKR scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.75 (+27.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$107.82 -
$116.34
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$107.82 -
$116.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$98.77
Resistance Level
$118.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($140.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.01
Wall Street Target
$140.75
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.4%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$103.88
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$100.77
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â17)
$110.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.6%)
$219.70
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 14.6%)
$166.06
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 14.6%)
$141.15
(+28%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$221.42
(+101%)
Analyst growth 82.1%, PE expands to 30.1
Base Case
$201.29
(+82%)
Market implied 82.1%, PE stable at 27.4
Bear Case
$75.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$121.36
(+9.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TKR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The Timken Company has completed the sale of its belts business to Gates Industrial Corporation, with the deal expected to improve adjusted EBITDA margins and be accretive to EPS in 2027.
Key Retail Themes:
divestiture
focus on core competencies
margin improvement
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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