SWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
$83.81
-2.50 (-2.90%)
▼
5d:
-1.17%
30d:
+10.95%
90d:
+19.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.24
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $83.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.18 to $83.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.46, while resistance sits at $88.25.
Market Sentiment: SWK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.65 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.46, while resistance sits at $88.25.
Market Sentiment: SWK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.65 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.18 -
$83.44
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($92.65)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.9% growth with 2.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.18 -
$83.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.46
Resistance Level
$88.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.50
Wall Street Target
$92.65
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.40
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$87.03
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$88.68
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$84.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.2%)
$206.72
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 15.2%)
$128.15
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 15.2%)
$108.93
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.44
Bull Case
$190.85
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.1
Base Case
$173.50
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.6
Bear Case
$58.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-05
Gary C. Peters
BUY
2026-01-12
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