SWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
$100.02
1.17 (1.18%)
â˛
5d:
-2.01%
30d:
+14.43%
90d:
+32.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SWK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SWK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.65
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $100.02, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.00 to $101.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SWK scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SWK scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$90.00 -
$101.84
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($99.36)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.8% growth expectation is conservative given 248% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.00 -
$101.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.05
Resistance Level
$104.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.61
Wall Street Target
$99.36
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
247.8%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.8% premium
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 13.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.37
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$111.48
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$117.94
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â13)
PE COMPRESSION
$99.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$189.19
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$146.87
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 13.8%)
$124.18
(+25%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case
$175.12
(+75%)
Analyst growth 56.0%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$159.20
(+59%)
Market implied 56.0%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$69.41
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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