Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.

CUTLERY, HANDTOOLS & GENERAL HARDWARE
$89.59
1.00 (1.13%) ▲
5d: -0.64%
30d: -5.21%
90d: -2.51%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Protect Your SWK Gains
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 30, 2026 at $88.59 · last confirmed Sep 30, 2026

Strength: 5.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWK is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.60
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.09
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $89.59, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.73 to $96.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $85.88, while resistance sits at $92.35.

Market Sentiment: SWK scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.09 (+12.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range $88.73 - $96.59
Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 89.0%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($101.09)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $88.73 - $96.59
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $85.88
Resistance Level $92.35
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.04
Wall Street Target $101.09 (+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 247.8%
Profit Margin 4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History +1.7% premium
PE vs Historical 14.0 vs 13.4 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $91.11 (+2%)
2-Year Target $92.66 (+3%)
3-Year Target $94.24 (+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→13) PE COMPRESSION $89.92 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.8%) $191.90 (+114%)
Base: (SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 13.8%) $132.10 (+48%)
Bear: (PE: 11.9, Growth: 13.8%) $112.29 (+25%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case $152.00 (+70%)
Analyst growth 56.0%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case $138.18 (+54%)
Market implied 56.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case $60.24 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL

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