SWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
$86.53
-1.69 (-1.92%)
▼
5d:
-6.51%
30d:
+11.69%
90d:
+19.86%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.00
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $86.53, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.37 to $91.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$81.37 -
$91.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($90.18)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with 2.7% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.37 -
$91.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.86
Resistance Level
$95.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.90
Wall Street Target
$90.18
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.69
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$90.91
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$93.18
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.7%)
$210.08
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 15.7%)
$134.07
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 15.7%)
$113.96
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.44
Bull Case
$194.08
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.8
Base Case
$176.44
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.2
Bear Case
$59.99
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-05
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