Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LIEN - Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. Common Stock
$9.50
0.05 (0.53%)
▲
5d:
-5.38%
30d:
-7.32%
90d:
-3.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LIEN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LIEN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.47
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LIEN is currently trading at $9.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.83 to $10.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LIEN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $9.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LIEN scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LIEN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $9.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LIEN scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.83 -
$10.38
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.83 -
$10.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.40
Resistance Level
$10.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.79
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+15.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.4%
Profit Margin
52.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.19
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$8.88
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$8.59
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$9.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$43.73
(+360%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 9.3%)
$12.42
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$10.55
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$12.26
(+29%)
Analyst growth 18.0%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$11.15
(+17%)
Market implied 18.0%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$6.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.50
(+10.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LIEN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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