Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LIEN - Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. Common Stock
$10.14
-0.04 (-0.34%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.84%
30d:
+4.54%
90d:
+2.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LIEN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LIEN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.47
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LIEN is currently trading at $10.14, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.55 to $10.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LIEN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LIEN scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LIEN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LIEN scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$9.55 -
$10.25
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.55 -
$10.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.10
Resistance Level
$10.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.18
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.4%
Profit Margin
52.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.01
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.88
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$9.75
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â6)
$10.09
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.3%)
$43.23
(+326%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 9.3%)
$13.25
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$11.26
(+11%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$13.21
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.0%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$12.00
(+18%)
Market implied 18.0%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$6.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.50
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LIEN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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