Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOB - Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
$35.71
0.36 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
+1.59%
30d:
-3.72%
90d:
-15.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LOB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LOB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.16
27.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOB is currently trading at $35.71, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.87 to $37.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LOB scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.75 (+16.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LOB scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.75 (+16.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.87 -
$37.87
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.75)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.87 -
$37.87
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.49
Resistance Level
$36.67
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.34
Wall Street Target
$41.75
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.1%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.21
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$32.77
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$31.40
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$35.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 44.7%)
$257.49
(+621%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 44.7%)
$108.17
(+203%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 44.7%)
$91.95
(+158%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.85
Bull Case
$58.40
(+64%)
Analyst growth 50.2%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$53.09
(+49%)
Market implied 50.2%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$24.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$40.66
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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