Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOB - Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
$36.68
0.29 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
-2.13%
30d:
-7.16%
90d:
-12.25%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LOB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LOB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.93
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.01
25.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOB is currently trading at $36.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.29 to $39.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $35.32, while resistance sits at $38.62.
Market Sentiment: LOB scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.75 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $35.32, while resistance sits at $38.62.
Market Sentiment: LOB scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.75 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.29 -
$39.77
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($46.75)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.29 -
$39.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.32
Resistance Level
$38.62
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.69
Wall Street Target
$46.75
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.1%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.51
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$34.37
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$33.27
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$36.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 35.4%)
$213.83
(+483%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 35.4%)
$91.07
(+148%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 35.4%)
$77.41
(+111%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.86
Bull Case
$59.09
(+61%)
Analyst growth 47.6%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$53.72
(+47%)
Market implied 47.6%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$24.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$40.53
(+10.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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