Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOB - Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
$39.25
0.09 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
-0.78%
30d:
-8.21%
90d:
+1.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LOB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LOB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.10
20.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOB is currently trading at $39.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.37 to $42.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LOB scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.25 (+17.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LOB scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.25 (+17.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.37 -
$42.71
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.25)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 78/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.37 -
$42.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.19
Resistance Level
$40.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.28
Wall Street Target
$46.25
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.1%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.78
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$38.31
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$37.85
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$39.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 35.5%)
$212.21
(+441%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 35.5%)
$97.63
(+149%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 35.5%)
$82.98
(+111%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.86
Bull Case
$63.71
(+62%)
Analyst growth 47.9%, PE expands to 15.1
Base Case
$57.92
(+48%)
Market implied 47.9%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$26.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$40.61
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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