Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$73.76
-1.09 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
+5.3%
30d:
+11.29%
90d:
-0.63%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LPX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $73.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.43 to $69.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.8) compared to its historical average (20.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.79 (+19.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.79 (+19.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$64.43 -
$69.70
Company Quality Score
24/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LPX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.8% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($87.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.6% growth with -12.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 24/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.43 -
$69.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.01
Resistance Level
$74.96
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.79
Wall Street Target
$87.79
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.8%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.6% premium
PE vs Historical
25.8 vs 20.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.37
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$85.40
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$91.89
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.8, Growth: 164.3%)
$248.94
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 164.3%)
$191.71
(+160%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 164.3%)
$162.95
(+121%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 19.08 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.87
Bull Case
$89.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$73.76
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$56.43
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 10:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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