Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.
$66.79
-0.50 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-2.02%
30d:
-9.91%
90d:
-10.99%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.73
10.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $66.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.92 to $75.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (20.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LPX scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.23 (+38.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LPX scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.23 (+38.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$68.92 -
$75.54
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
93.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.1% below Wall St target ($92.23)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with -12.1% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 69/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.92 -
$75.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.35
Resistance Level
$70.92
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.05
Wall Street Target
$92.23
(+38.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.8%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 20.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.53
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$70.31
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$72.14
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 180.1%)
$225.42
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 180.1%)
$206.44
(+209%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 180.1%)
$175.47
(+163%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 19.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.43
Bull Case
$80.65
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.5
Base Case
$66.79
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$51.09
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 8:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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