Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS (NO FURNITURE)
$65.29
0.19 (0.29%) ▲
5d: -1.17%
30d: -3.6%
90d: -12.69%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Protect Your LPX Gains
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 29d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $66.42 · last confirmed Oct 5, 2026

Strength: 5.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LPX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.33
13.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LPX is currently trading at $65.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.06 to $68.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.5) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LPX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $62.18, while resistance sits at $68.71.

Market Sentiment: LPX scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.07 (+41.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range $65.06 - $68.76
Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 93.8%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($92.07)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with -12.1% revenue growth
  • CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $65.06 - $68.76
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $62.18
Resistance Level $68.71
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Oct 5, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.48
Wall Street Target $92.07 (+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -51.8%
Profit Margin 2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History +1.5% premium
PE vs Historical 21.5 vs 20.5 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +1.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $66.27 (+2%)
2-Year Target $67.26 (+3%)
3-Year Target $68.27 (+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→21) PE COMPRESSION $65.14 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.5, Growth: 182.3%) $220.35 (+238%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 182.3%) $202.05 (+210%)
Bear: (PE: 16.7, Growth: 182.3%) $171.74 (+163%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 19.08 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.42
Bull Case $78.84 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case $65.29 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case $49.95 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: October 05, 2026 6:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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